- Polymarket shows 84% chance of Trump pardoning Ulbricht.
- Elon Musk confirms Trump will grant Ross a pardon soon.
- Trump’s first day in office raises doubts with no crypto-focused actions.
As Trump takes office, Polymarket traders show an 84% chance of him pardoning Ross Ulbricht, with Elon Musk’s confirmation adding weight to the prediction. This growing speculation raises questions about Trump’s impact on crypto policy.
Ulbricht’s Pardon Gathers Massive Support
Polymarket has predicted an 84% chance that former President Donald Trump will pardon Ross Ulbricht, the creator of Silk Road. This forecast marks a sharp increase of 35% from earlier predictions. As of January 21, traders on the platform believe Ulbricht’s pardon is highly probable within Trump’s first week in office.
The prediction market saw a significant surge in the likelihood of a pardon which reflects the increased speculation. Traders have bet more heavily on the possibility following statements and rumors about Trump’s plans. However, there is increased uncertainty in the market.
Ross Ulbricht, convicted in 2015 for his role in Silk Road, has served more than a decade in prison. He was sentenced to life in prison for facilitating illegal activities through the Bitcoin-based marketplace. His case has gained traction, especially among supporters in the crypto community who have called for his release.
Trump’s Presidential Pardon Gains Traction
Elon Musk recently confirmed that Trump would grant Ulbricht a pardon. In response to a supporter’s comment on social media, Musk assured, “Ross will be freed too.” This endorsement adds weight to the prediction market’s confidence in Ulbricht’s potential release.
Moreover, Polymarket traders have shown interest in other potential pardons of Steve Bannon, Eric Adams, Roger Ver, and Julian Assange. However, none of these figures are close to Ulbricht’s 99% confidence level for a pardon within Trump’s first 100 days.
In 2024, Trump promised to commute Ulbricht’s sentence to time served during a Libertarian Party Speech . He reaffirmed this commitment at a Bitcoin conference later in the year, boosting expectations among his advocates.
Crypto Initiatives ‘Loud Absence’ On Trump’s First Day
However, Trump’s first day in office did not address cryptocurrency. His administration focused instead on immigration reform, energy policies, and restructuring federal operations. This omission left the crypto community uncertain about the future direction of U.S. crypto policy.
Initial speculations had hinted at bold crypto initiatives, such as the recognition of Bitcoin as a national priority. However, these ideas have yet to materialize, raising questions about Trump’s approach to cryptocurrency. As the crypto community anticipates the administration’s crypto initiatives, the pardon serves as a critical point for their concerns.
Polymarket’s confidence in Ulbricht’s release contrasts with the broader uncertainty over crypto policy. As the situation develops, political dynamics may influence the final outcome.