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Bitcoin’s Next Big Move: Fed Rate Cuts and ETF Growth Drive Market

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  • Bitcoin faces consolidation after recent rise, with over $333M in long trader liquidations signaling a tight range ahead.
  • Volatility in BTC expected to increase with central banks set to announce major interest rate decisions.
  • Institutional interest surges as BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF nearly doubles its Gold ETF’s AUM in under a year, boosting Bitcoin’s appeal.

The value of Bitcoin has been rising again in the recent past, though, the pace is gradually decelerating. While altcoins seem to be on the verge of breaking out, Bitcoin seems to be ranging. The past day was particularly unkind to long traders, who faced massive liquidations exceeding $333 million. This means that BTC may be trading in a tight range in the near future until the market sees the next big move upward.

Bitcoin Faces Increased Volatility

In the next few days, Bitcoin will remain quite volatile. Interest rate decisions from the central banks of three of the world’s largest economies will be announced. Today, the Federal Reserve is likely to come up with the final FOMC data for the year 2024. The market is expecting a 25 basis points reduction to 4.50% due to the continued moderation of inflation.

Ali Martinez posted and shared his thoughts on X about BTC prices. He said that the price movements of Bitcoin in 2017 and 2020 might be a good reference for the future. BTC could undergo some retracement once it reaches certain price levels. He believes there will be a minor consolidation at $110,000, a stronger one at $125,000 and a major correction at $150,000. According to Ali, if the bull market were to end, it might do so at $220,000 in 2025.

At the moment, BTC is worth $104,789. This slight fall occurs as markets await the decision of the U.S. Federal Reserve on the interest rates. Most observers are keen on finding out how the Fed’s decision may impact the future path of BTC.

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Source: TradingView

BlackRock ETF Growth Surges

At the same time, the founder of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju noted an increase in institutional investments in BTC. He pointed out that BlackRock’s Bitcoin spot ETF has already grown the assets under management to almost twice those of the Gold ETF in less than a year. This underlines the fact that cryptocurrency is increasingly drawing the attention of mainstream investors who could help prop up its future appreciation.

While BTC finds its footing, investors and traders are monitoring the Fed and new trends in the crypto space. However, there could be more volatility in the short-term prices of cryptocurrency but long-term growth cannot be ruled out. As institutional investors pour money into BTC and the global economy changes, Bitcoin’s next move may propel or hinder the entire cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin’s Market Cycles: Understanding the 4 Stages and Key Influences

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The behavior of Bitcoin’s value during the 2023-2024 market cycle can be divided into four phases. Daan Crypto Trades highlighted in a recent post on X that these stages consist of two rallies and two consolidation periods with the second phase of each stage longer than the first. This pattern makes it easier to describe the nature of cryptocurrency and its trends, since the latter are usually quite random. 

Bitcoin’s Four Stages of the Cycle

The first rally was from January to April of 2023 which was characterized by a strong rebound in the price of Bitcoin, this was followed by a period of trading range bound till September of 2023. The market then experienced the second phase of rallying from September 2023 to March 2024 and after that the market entered into the consolidation phase which began from March 2024. 

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Daan Crypto points out that the first two phases of the rally and consolidation were relatively quick while the other two phases have lasted longer and are now the same. This observation points to one of the most important aspects of the Bitcoin market cycle. The majority of the profits are usually made within a few months while the consolidation phases can take longer and may give the traders a lot of confusion. 

The analysis is based on the idea that it is difficult to determine when to enter or exit the Bitcoin market. Those who come into the market with the intention of buying and selling with an intention of making a quick profit may not get it right with quick and powerful bull runs. 

On the other hand those who enter or trade early in anticipation of a big move may end up being caught in the chop zone where prices are ranged and may lead to a loss. Consequently, spot trading should be preferred because of the numerous risks that are associated with leveraged trading and are suitable for most investors to hold their positions. 

Bitcoin’s September Performance 

Ash Crypto also shared some insights about the movement of Bitcoin in September noting that the currency oscillated between $46,000 and $70,000. Bitcoin closed the month at $58,975 after having risen by 8% in the week. This is the 75% correction, the lowest close since the end of the last year, six months ago. This is even when the U. S stock market was trading near its record high levels suggesting that there might be a separation between the price of Bitcoin and the equity market. 

Historically September has been a red month for Bitcoin where we can observe negative returns for six out of seven years. The biggest change was recorded in 2019 when the decrease was 13% and the only growth was recorded in 2023 and when it was 4%. 

Key Events to Watch 

Some of the possible events that could influence the market trend of Bitcoin are the US election that is scheduled for November 5, FOMC meetings, monthly CPI data release and job reports. Similarly, the level of M2 money supply would be monitored for any indications of market direction changes. 

 As Bitcoin continues to go through these many market cycles, these lessons could be useful for traders and investors. Realizing these phases and factors would certainly be helpful in the decision making process if one is to transpose into the world of cryptocurrencies. 

Ethereum Faces Key Resistance After FOMC Decision, Analysts Weigh In

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The well-known crypto analyst VeLLa Crypto recently explained his points of view on X, revealing some insights into Ethereum’s most recent price dynamics. Based on the VeLLa Crypto, Ethereum entered the first supply zone but was rejected after the FOMC resolution to continue increasing interest rates.

VeLLa Crypto notes that there is a ‘make or break’ time for Ethereum in their analysis. He said that the lower rejection at the supply zone might sweep the local lows and open the way for a downtrend. This view reflects the current stance in the market where investors are eagerly waiting for any opportunities that manifest large changes in price.

Another respected analyst, Crypto Tony, shared the prices predictions of ETH. In his latest post on X, Crypto Tony pointed out that Ether is currently being supported by a crucial zone. He pointed out that although ETH holds this support level very well, it is still a zone of conflict between the bulls and the bears.

Key Support Zone For Ethereum Identified

Crypto Tony’s breakdown indicates that it is important to keep holding this support level. He noted that he wouldl consider entering the market if Ethereum maintains this level further. This viewpoint can be attributed to the fact that the traders involved are reluctant to make huge investment based on guess work hence waiting for the appearance of clear signal to base their decisions on.

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This has caught the attention of the broader community of cryptocurrencies. The remaining unchanged interest rate by the FOMC has increased uncertainty which impacts not only the conventional markets but also the cryptosystems. Since Ethereum currently ranks as the second largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, such news impacts the token significantly more.

While the price level of ETH remains unclear and decentralised between the support and supply zones, the direction in the near future solely depends on institutional and retail investors. This on-going bulls and bear battle will determine the fate of Ethereum in the coming days, therefore the information of top analysts remains relevant.

This is evident in Ethereum at the current time due to the need to maintain a steady focus on particular support and resistance levels. As the expert analyst put forward their opinion about the market situation, traders are facilitated with the understanding of various factors. This has left the crypto-community on the edge of its seated anxiously to see if Ethereum is prepared to stand its ground or if the coming days will usher in more swings.

Altcoin Bottom Forecast By Analyst Amid Major Economic Indicators: Report

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A popular crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe has recently given his take on the altcoins suggesting that a bottom may be forming. This forecast comes at a time when the market is preparing for a crucial day in the a much important macroeconomic indicators, starting with the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), and today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

These functions are highlighted by Van de Poppe as crucial for changing the market situation of altcoin. In the past, expectations of such events have a negative impact on cryptos, especially on alts and especially when it has to do with the leader in crypto – Bitcoin. Also, recently, corrections after Roaring Kitty’s event and the GameStop dip last week are not suitable for price action.

However, the analyst highlights a recurring pattern from previous FOMC meetings: it revealed that market bottoms often occurred in mid of the week presented a great rebound in the subsequent days of the week. Most important to note, touching on the previous FOMC meetings, both Bitcoin and altcoin jumped more than 10% and 20%, respectively, after they both pulled back.

CPI Data Release Poised To Impact Altcoin Market

The CPI data, scheduled for release at 14:30 CET or the core Consumer Price Index, the FOMC uses it in the determination of inflation and requisite interest rate adjustments. In the recent past, inflation rates have been above the projected average, with April CPI inflation at 3.5%. , This is despite the fact that only 3.4 % is expected to increase by that percentage, as identified earlier. This is a persistent inflation that is contrary to the statements made by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell regarding sticky inflation.

Some of these are the annual expected increases, among which the CPI Y/Y is expected to reach the value of 3.4%, and CPI month-on-month (MoM) at 0.1%, Core CPI Y/Y is 3.5% while Core CPI Y/Y has been established at 1.3%. In case the actual numbers are in line or below these expectations a favorable market reaction is expected.

FOMC Decision And Powell’s Speech

The day’s second major event is the FOMC’s interest rate decision at 20:09:00 PM GMT, it is cut by ISDA, then Powell speech at 8:30 PM CET. The recent rate cut taken by the European Central Bank and which is its first since 2019 hints slowly at the possibility of the U.S. doing the same, depending on today’s data on the CPI. An inflation rate higher than the estimated one could contribute to a higher dollar and yields, lowering the prospects of rate cuts in the near future as well as hurt risky assets such as crypto.

Cryptocurrencies’ price movements in the altcoin and crypto markets witnessed recent fluctuations based on negative correlation between FOMC meetings and CPI data that could soon pivot. The analyst foresee a potential upward repricing this afternoon, based on carried out assumption, if FOMC speaks dovishly, Bitcoin should be at new highs soon.

The analyst frowns at the use of trades at this volatile period and recommends the observing the reactions of gold, dollar and treasury yields to today’s data. According to Van de Poppe, the dollar and yields will continue to go down, paving way for higher altcoin and crypto markets. To their advantage, this may lead to the approval of Ethereum’s ETF boosting the price to all-time high before the summer.

Ethereum Reaches Key Level: Analyst Predicts Relief Ahead Of CPI/FOMC

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In a recent post on X, highly regarded cryptocurrency expert Daan Crypto shared his insights on the current position of Ethereum (ETH). The analyst noted that ETH has gotten to an interesting spot in its trading protocols by cleaning out the range low and prodding the 4H 200MA.

Daan Crypto’s view shows that this is rather an opportunity for relief or consolidation for Ethereum, particularly with that massive economic events are anticipated to occur. His suggestions suggest that traders may be waiting for some consolidation or minor range-bound movement in ETH, as a trading range forms in the run up to the CPI and FOMC meetings.

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Key Economic Events Impacting Ethereum

The CPI and FOMC meetings are some of the social events that can significantly influence the markets, such as cryptocurrencies. The CPI serves as an inflation indicator; the FOMC meeting relates to interests rates and monetary policies concerning a country’s economy. Both events remain eagerly awaited by investors since they may affect both market moods and trading approaches.

Daan Crypto’s notes shed light on an important technical analysis of Ethereum. The chart below by the analyst indicates a support line labeled ‘4H 200MA,’ which is a 200-period moving average on the 4-hour chart. This is an important sign of support that, when breached, may result in a reversal or a consolidation period. 

Ethereum’s price may experience a continual range bound or slightly upward movement. This period could provide traders with some protection and time to gear up or forex strategies that might be catalyzed by movement after CPI and FOMC.

The analyst has demonstrated the technical aspects that lead to the changes in Ethereum price and other market forces at play. Some thrilling upcoming events are the economic events, which would shape traders’ and investors’ views on how Ethereum would perform based on the results of these events and may influence their decisions.

Daan Crypto‘s analysis provides an inside to one of the most significant stages in Ethereum. As the markets look forward to key economic releases, he paints an impression that Ethereum could be due for some short-term conservatism and provide traders with a moment where they could ‘collect their breath’ before entering into the effects of the CPI & FOMC.

Bitcoin Watch: Key Economic Events To Drive Crypto Volatility

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According to a recent post on the X platform, esteemed cryptocurrency expert Michael van de Poppe predicted a potentially volatile week for Bitcoin and Ethereum. With the financial markets readying for a series of important events, investors are told to stay vigilant.

The focal points for the week are unemployment data release, FOMC decisions, and ETFs launch in Hong Kong. The occurrences are anticipated to affect the market dynamics to a great extent and can lead to substantial price swings in the field of cryptocurrency.

Van de Poppe predicts that these events may cause another steep price fall in the market. Nevertheless, he also proposes that if such a decline happens, it may be the last significant dip for Bitcoin and Ethereum before a possible stabilization or growth.

The unemployment data is also very important, as these figures provide information about economic stability and the purchasing power of consumers, which is a factor that influences investment in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. In the same way, the FOMC decision will delineate monetary policy and interest rates, which have historically driven investors’ sentiment and risk appetite across sectors, including digital assets.

Hong Kong ETFs Boost Bitcoin Liquidity

In addition, the introduction of ETFs in Hong Kong represents a major development in the cryptocurrency field creating new ways of investment and making Bitcoin and Ethereum more liquid. People interested in cryptocurrencies closely monitor this event since it can open the door to further acceptance and integration of crypto assets into traditional financial portfolios.

Because of the nature of these high-impact events, Van de Poppe’s volatility forecast is not unjustified. His advice to the crypto community is to ready themselves for price volatility, the degree of which will greatly depend on events in the next week.

The market is waiting for these situations to change, and the investors and traders stand ready to react to any signs of economic shifts that could impact the stability and growth of Bitcoin and Ethereum. The prospect of these occurrences highlights the intricate interface between global economic indicators and the growingly mainstream world of cryptocurrencies.

The next few days are crucial for the market of cryptocurrencies, there are some important events that could determine short-term trends and movements. Those with an interest in the Bitcoin and Ethereum markets are advised to keep abreast with these developments.

Bitcoin’s Price Vulnerability: Analysts Sound Alarm Over Failure To Surpass $70,300

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Bitcoin’s price is on a precarious edge, with analysts warning of a potential further plunge if it fails to reclaim a critical level. Currently hovering around $60,000, Bitcoin faces the risk of dropping even lower if it doesn’t surge past $70,300 soon. An analyst on X has sounded the alarm, indicating that a failure to break above $70,300 could lead to a significant downturn, possibly plummeting to the $59,000 to $62,000 support range. 

This would mark a 20% decline from its recent all-time high of $73,800.The analyst points to a concerning bearish divergence formation in Bitcoin’s daily chart, signaling a disconnect between price and momentum. With bears exerting dominance, the likelihood of further downward pressure intensifies.

In order to improve the current situation, it is imperative for bullish investors to swiftly achieve a strong closing price above the $70,300 threshold. This strategic action holds the potential to mitigate the current downward pressure on Bitcoin’s value, effectively arresting the ongoing sell-off, and restoring Bitcoin’s trajectory to align with its recent upward trend.

Bitcoin’s Response To FOMC Meeting Anticipation

Multiple fundamental factors are at play, including anticipation surrounding the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in the United States. The recent decision by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates for the first time in over a decade has added to market volatility, underlining the fragility of global financial conditions.

Moreover, significant outflows from Grayscale, coupled with diminishing capital influx into spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs), are further dampening sentiment. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) winding down and the subsequent release of more coins than purchased by spot BTC ETF issuers signal a bearish trend in the market.

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Bitcoin's Price Vulnerability: Analysts Sound Alarm Over Failure To Surpass $70,300 8

Despite these challenges, the broader crypto market sentiment remains bullish, buoyed by anticipation surrounding the upcoming halving event. However, Bitcoin’s immediate fate hangs in the balance as it teeters on the edge of a potential further decline.

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Bitcoin's Price Vulnerability: Analysts Sound Alarm Over Failure To Surpass $70,300 9

As investors brace for volatility, all eyes are on Bitcoin’s ability to reclaim key levels and the outcome of the impending FOMC meeting. Whether BTC will weather the storm or succumb to further downward pressure remains to be seen, but the stakes have never been higher for the world’s leading cryptocurrency.

99% Probability: Bitcoin Bulls Brace for Fed’s Interest Rates

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The looming shadow of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision has cast uncertainty over the cryptocurrency market, with Bitcoin at the forefront of concern. Renowned Chinese crypto journalist Colin Wu, known for his insightful perspectives, recently took to X to remind the community about the scheduled Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting later this week.

The FOMC meeting, set for March 20, will see Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell announcing the Fed’s decision on the interest rate. However, data from the CME platform suggests a high probability—99%—that the interest rate will remain unchanged.

Bitcoin’s Resilience Amidst Fed’s Monetary Policy Shifts

The significance of this announcement cannot be understated. The Fed’s interest rate decisions wield considerable influence over financial markets, including the volatile realm of cryptocurrencies. Historically, rate tightening by the Fed has exerted downward pressure on risky assets like Bitcoin, while rate cuts tend to stimulate investment flows into BTC, thus driving its price upward.

The anticipation surrounding this decision is intensified by Powell’s recent indications of a potential shift in monetary policy. While the Fed has been tightening rates to combat inflation in recent years, Powell has hinted at a possible reversal, sparking optimism within the crypto community.

The timing of the announcement is particularly critical as Bitcoin recently surged to a new all-time high of $73,750, only to experience a sudden reversal and a subsequent 12% correction, with prices plummeting to $64,908 on Sunday. However, the cryptocurrency has since staged a modest 5% recovery, currently trading at $67,926.

Despite this volatility, the overarching narrative of Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against traditional financial systems remains compelling. The community eagerly awaits the outcome of the FOMC meeting, recognizing its potential to shape the future trajectory of Bitcoin’s price movement.

As investors brace for the impending announcement, the resilience of Bitcoin in the face of market fluctuations underscores its status as a prominent player in the global financial landscape. Whether the Fed’s decision will serve as a boon or a bane for Bitcoin remains to be seen, but one thing is certain—its impact will reverberate throughout the cryptocurrency market.

Bitcoin: Buy the Dip or Bear Market? Tug of War Intensifies

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The crypto market has undergone a substantial retracement, with Bitcoin’s price witnessing a nearly 10% decline since its peak on December 8th. This downturn has sent shockwaves across the crypto space, affecting lower-cap altcoins even more significantly. Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency, recorded a notable drop, prompting a reassessment of the recent bullish sentiment.

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Bitcoin: Buy the Dip or Bear Market? Tug of War Intensifies 11

The retracement is not limited to Bitcoin alone, as lower-cap altcoins are reporting particularly steep falls. Investors in these alternative cryptocurrencies are witnessing substantial losses, prompting some to reevaluate their positions in the market.

As the market grapples with the recent downturn, there is a notable split in sentiment. On one hand, advocates of the “buy the dip” strategy are encouraging investors to take advantage of the lower prices, seeing it as an opportunity for strategic entry or accumulation of assets.

On the other hand, a growing number of speculators are expressing concerns about the possibility of a looming bear market. The recent retracement has fueled discussions about the sustainability of the bullish trend that has dominated the crypto space in recent months.

Bitcoin: Inflation Indicators This Week

Industry experts and analysts are divided on the root causes of the retracement and its potential long-term effects. Some attribute the decline to profit-taking after the recent price surge, while others point to external factors such as regulatory developments and global economic uncertainties. Despite the market drop, some individuals continue to assert a bullish outlook on BTC. A trader remarked,

Bitcoin has been on a prolonged bull market cycle since 2019. The pattern of Bull market cycle is identified in BTC, and it is now in the stage of “Renewed Optimism”, the first stage of the Blow-off phase. The next stage is “FOMO” when it reaches over $100,000. In the “Euphoria” stage, BTC could reach over $400,000. We are still early We are still in the early stages.

The market is eagerly awaiting the release of the November Consumer Price Index [CPI] inflation data scheduled for December 12. Simultaneously, the Federal Open Market Committee [FOMC] is slated to convene on December 12 and 13. These two events hold significance for Bitcoin’s price. The CPI inflation data typically influences the FOMC’s decision on whether to adjust interest rates in its efforts to combat inflation. A dovish stance, viewed as positive for markets, including Bitcoin, contrasts with a hawkish one, which tends to have a negative impact.

Bitcoin Surge: A Macro-Driven Rally With ETF Hopes- Analyzing 32k & 36k Levels

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Recently, Bitcoin has once again captured the attention of investors and enthusiasts alike. This recent rally, however, has proven to be less about the much-anticipated spot ETF developments and more about the powerful macroeconomic forces at play. 

What triggered this surge? Well, it all started with a surprising twist in Treasury supply estimates and a dovish stance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).

The cryptocurrency market, often dancing to its own tune, has shown a remarkable sensitivity to broader financial market dynamics. In this case, the smaller-than-expected Treasury supply estimate for the first quarter of the year, coupled with the dovish FOMC’s message, resulted in a dramatic drop in bond yields. 

As a chain reaction, this sent risk assets soaring, and Bitcoin was no exception. It’s become increasingly evident that the much-anticipated spot ETF approval is the key to kickstarting the next exponential rally.

Analyzing the 32k and 36k Levels For Bitcoin

According to insights from QCP Capital Broadcast, their analysis emphasizes the significance of the 36k level in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Today, Bitcoin kissed the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and the upper channel trendline before retracing. 

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While the spotlight has been on-the-spot ETF approval, this rally underscores that macroeconomic factors are the driving force behind the recent price action. The hope now is that this could be the beginning of a broader uptrend in global equities and bonds, with the macroeconomic landscape showing signs of correction from overly bearish bond sentiment.

As Bitcoin’s spot price continues its ascent, various derivatives in the cryptocurrency market are displaying remarkable characteristics. Perpetual funding, term forwards, implied volatility, and risk reversals all exhibit elevated levels. Those positioned for an implied upside breakout are eagerly awaiting the spot ETF approval, which could potentially send prices surging even further.

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QCP concluded by asserting that the coming days hold significant events that could impact the cryptocurrency market. After the closing bell, investors are keenly watching the earnings reports from Coinbase and Apple, and tomorrow, the release of the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data is expected to provide further fuel for the market. These events could have a substantial effect on implied volatility and the lofty call premiums being observed.

Related Reading | Ethereum’s $1,800 Rally: 100 New Addresses, 70% Trading Volume Boost