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Bitcoin: Mystery Coinbase Seller Triggers Sell-Off

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Bitcoin price plummeted on Thursday, dropping by over 5% in a matter of hours. While various factors contribute to the cryptocurrency market’s volatility, one particular selling activity has caught the attention of experts and fueled speculation: a large-scale seller operating on the Coinbase exchange.

As per CryptoQuant’s analyst Maartunn, this mysterious seller has been consistently offloading significant amounts of BTC, with their actions aligning with sharp declines in the cryptocurrency’s price. The sheer volume of BTC being sold has led many to wonder who this individual or entity could be, and whether their actions are deliberately designed to manipulate the market.

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Bitcoin: Mystery Coinbase Seller Triggers Sell-Off 2

Speculations are rife regarding the seller’s identity. Some claimed that it could be the US government looking to divest its BTC holdings, which has been rumored to possess a substantial stash of BTC seized from the Silk Road dark market. However, this theory has been largely dismissed by experts, who point out that the address associated with the infamous Silk Road BTCs remains active and has not shown any signs of selling.

The U.S. Supreme Court has decided not to intervene in a case concerning the ownership of 69,370 Bitcoins, valued at $4.38 billion, which were originally seized by the U.S. government from the dark web marketplace Silk Road. This decision paves the way for the sale of the Bitcoins.

Is This the Beginning of a Bitcoin Bear Market?

Another possibility is that the seller could be a large financial institution or hedge fund looking to profit from the Bitcoin price decline. These entities often employ sophisticated trading strategies that involve shorting the market, which involves betting on the price of an asset to fall. If the seller is indeed shorting BTC, their continued selling pressure could be exacerbating the downward price movement.

Whatever the seller’s true identity, their actions are undoubtedly having a significant impact on the Bitcoin market. The sudden influx of sell orders could lead investors and traders to exit their positions before the price falls further. This selling pressure has also put a strain on BTC’s liquidity, making it more difficult to buy or sell the cryptocurrency without experiencing significant price slippage.

As the Bitcoin price continues to tumble, the identity of the mysterious Coinbase seller remains a subject of intense speculation. Only time will tell whether this selling pressure will continue, and what the ultimate consequences will be for the future of Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s Red Alert: 2020 Deja Vu?

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A key metric in Bitcoin is flashing signs of an impending market correction. CryptoQuant’s latest insights shed light on BTC’s UTXO loss ratio, which shows the percentage of coins held at a loss. It has hit levels last seen in the market downturn of the 2020 bull cycle. This has sparked concerns as history suggests that such high UTXO loss ratios often precede price corrections.

“The estimated percentage of Bitcoin in the loss range as of 2024 is similar to the big correction during the 2020 bull cycle.”

The 2020 market crash was severe due to the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the cryptocurrency market experienced a surge fueled by robust stimulus measures, including the Fed’s unlimited quantitative easing policy.

Market experts expressed doubt about the repetition of past events. Although recent economic conditions have been aggravated by inflation, debt levels, and geopolitical tensions, the Federal Reserve has already embarked on a tightening cycle, limiting its capacity for aggressive stimulus.

Amidst the recent market turmoil, experts caution against prematurely declaring a bear market as further analysis is needed for confirmation. The current situation warrants close monitoring of both on-chain metrics and macroeconomic indicators to gauge the market’s trajectory. Bitcoin’s short-term price outlook revealed an interesting trend.

Bitcoin Price Analysis

The token has recently undergone a significant price movement, absorbing liquidity from the recent low and reaching a new all-time peak. The expert noted that BTC’s price has maintained its structure with consistent daily candle closes above previous lows. While technical indicators suggest a potential bottom formation around the large volume candle, geopolitical factors could influence the market.

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Source: Morani

Reclaiming key levels, such as the 62k region, would strengthen the possibility of a local bottom. However, given the current global economic climate, it’s crucial to monitor broader market trends and their impact on Bitcoin.

If we start to reclaim important levels, for example, 62k then we have more confirmation that the low is in. In conclusion for BTC. Low could be based on TA especially if we start reclaiming levels, but we will have to see how things develop in the stock market and others. Certainly, it a time to pay attention.

Overall, while technical indicators point to a potential bottom, caution is advised due to external factors.

Ethereum’s OI Soars Post-ETF Launch

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Ethereum’s Open Interest [OI] has risen to $1.5 billion over the past three weeks, highlighting growing engagement in Ethereum trading. This significant surge reflects both bullish and bearish sentiments in the market, particularly in the context of the launch of spot ETFs.

Open Interest shows the total number of outstanding contracts or positions—both long and short active. It provides valuable insights into the liquidity and market activity revolving around a particular asset. A rise in OI suggests an influx of new money indicating heightened trading activity and market interest.

The recent spike in Ethereum’s OI comes amidst a brief surge in ETH price after a month of consolidation. This opens up room for an uptrend as it indicates new buying interest.

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Ethereum's OI Soars Post-ETF Launch 5

However, it might also signal increased leveraged trading, a factor closely linked to heightened market volatility. As more traders open positions using leverage, there is a looming probability of an increase in liquidations which can lead to abrupt price swings. Hence, it’s crucial for market participants to closely monitor OI to understand market dynamics and anticipate potential volatility.

Interestingly, the surge in Ethereum OI coincided with the introduction of spot ETFs. Just a day after its launch, ETH OI reached a local peak before retracting. This correlation suggests that institutional and retail investors may be adjusting their positions in response to the new financial products available, which could be influencing market behavior.

Overall, the recent jump in Ethereum’s Open Interest emphasizes the importance of monitoring this key metric to gauge market sentiment and brace for potential fluctuations.

Ethereum’s Post-ETF Price Insights

The other day, Ethereum‘s price took a nosedive post-ETF launch, sparking concerns in the crypto community. However, such dips are a typical part of the market cycle. Citing past trends, experts believe pullbacks of this nature, following the introduction of financial products, can be temporary and potentially advantageous.

When the Bitcoin [BTC] spot ETF was first rolled out in January, the token posted a 20% decline over 14 days. Market experts pointed out that this setback was short-lived as the dominant crypto skyrocketed 91% in the following 51 days. This pattern highlights how initial declines following major financial products’ launches can often precede substantial gains.

Ethereum Gas Fees Hit Rock Bottom: Price Rally Ahead?

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The Ethereum gas fees have hit a new low in two months amidst a highly-awaited ETF approval. CryptoQuant’s latest analysis highlights the trend of ETH average gas fees [Gwei], indicating reduced network usage. In the chart below, the black line represents ETH prices, and the blue line represents the 7-day moving average gas fees.

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Ethereum Gas Fees Hit Rock Bottom: Price Rally Ahead? 8

This chart shows the trend of ETH average gas fees (Gwei), with the black line representing Ethereum prices and the blue line representing the 7-day moving average gas fees. Currently, the trend shows that gas fees are at their lowest since May 2024, indicating a quieter Ethereum network activity. It can be observed that when gas fees increase, ETH prices tend to rise as well. Could this be the calm before the storm ahead of the upcoming approval of the ETH spot ETF?

At present, the trend shows that gas fees are at their lowest since May 2024. Historically, an increase in gas fees correlates with the rise in the prices of the altcoin. Per the data platform, the current respite is unusual and might be the ‘silence before the storm’, considering the potential spot ETF approval.

On the price front, ETH is reclaiming the 200-day Exponential Moving Average [EMA], showing strong resilience. If the token holds this position successfully, there could be another test of the $4,000 level.

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Ethereum Gas Fees Hit Rock Bottom: Price Rally Ahead? 9

Ethereum: Whale Accumulation Signals Bullish Sentiment

Confirming the bullish sentiment is the accumulation of ETH ecosystem tokens by major whales and institutions. These substantial withdrawals indicate significant interest and confidence in the Ethereum ecosystem. According to Lookonchain data, the following are the notable movements.

Furthermore, market experts are drawing parallels between Ethereum in 2024 and Bitcoin in 2023, suggesting a similar reaccumulation phase before a potential ETF rally. This comparison underscores the growing anticipation and optimistic sentiment surrounding the token.

Overall, Ethereum’s reduced gas fees and whales accumulating tokens, have stirred the attention of market observers who are closely watching for the next significant move. The potential approval of the Ethereum spot ETF could be a major catalyst, potentially propelling the leading altcoin’s prices to new heights.

US Gov’t Dumps 4K Bitcoin: What’s Next?

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The US government’s Bitcoin sale has triggered market speculation but market experts believe this offloading is unlikely to impact the market significantly. Recently US authorities transferred 4,000 BTC seized from Silk Road on Coinbase Prime sparking fears of selling pressure. CryptoQuant explained that Coinbase Prime manages much larger volumes of Bitcoin daily.

The exchange handles between 20,000 to 49,000 BTC during high spot ETF inflows and 6,000 to 15,000 BTC during low inflows. So, the sale of 4,000 BTC by the government is relatively small compared to these volumes. CryptoQuant suggests these sales are not as impactful as some might think.

The US gov’t sold 4K Bitcoin today, but less likely to impact the market. Coinbase Prime handled 20-49K BTC in sell-side liquidity daily during high spot ETF inflows and 6-15K daily during low spot ETF inflows. Posting this because I’m tired of “gov’t selling” FUDs.

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US Gov’t Dumps 4K Bitcoin: What’s Next? 11

Analyzing Bitcoin’s recent market activity and price levels, the dominant crypto faced rejection around $62,000, a key resistance level, and experienced a slight sell-off. At press time, BTC is holding steady at around $61,000, a psychologically and historically significant level, with the potential for a retest of lower levels around $59,900.

Bitcoin Stuck at $61K – What Traders Need to Know

Besides that, market observers have also noted unusual buying activity on Binance and significant selling on Coinbase. The timing of Coinbase’s sell-off is reflected in the derivative data. Moreover, the funding rate has turned positive, which means that long positions are being funded, indicating more leveraged long positions.

So, it will be interesting to see whether Binance’s spot demand is sustainable or whether it will only last for a short time and potentially move the price towards the liquidation cluster. The game plan and key levels are clear, wrote one expert.

Meanwhile, Florida Republican Congressman Matt Gaetz recently introduced a bill that would require the treasure dept to accept tax payments in Bitcoin. At present, only Colorado allows the use of cryptocurrency to pay taxes. The other states waiting in line to approve the payment are Utah, New Jersey, and Kentucky.

TON’s $7.3 Level Breaks, What’s Next?

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Open Network’s TON has continued its giant strides, breaking through all-time highs. Recent insights by CryptoQuant showed that the token’s recent peak of $7.3 has been broken and turned into support. As long as that level sticks around, TON’s price trajectory looks optimistic. Using technical analysis, the prominent data platform has dived into the token’s support and resistance levels.

TON hit an all-time high, $7.3 turned support. A few days ago, the price peaked at $7.3, but that level has now been broken and turned into support. As long as that level sticks around, this is a really bullish chart. 

Traders can easily define support and resistance levels- points where the price sharply increases or decreases. These levels create strong indicators when the price encounters them again. Historically, technical analysis has proven effective for TON at various levels, such as $0.55, $1.9, $4.5, and $2.6.

A few days ago, TON’s price peaked at $7.3. Although this level has since been broken, it has now turned into a new support level. As long as the price remains above this support, the chart appears highly bullish, noted CryptoQuaunt analyst Maartunn.

“This method has proven effective in the past for various levels such as the $0.55-level, $1.9-level, $4.5-level, and $2.6-level.

TON’s TVL Hit ATH

In addition to its impressive price performance, TON blockchain’s total value locked [TVL] surpassed $600 million, reaching an all-time high. Since December, the TVL has skyrocketed from $11 million to $603 million. That’s an increase of a whopping 54x in just six months.

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TON's $7.3 Level Breaks, What’s Next? 13

Earlier the Telegram ecosystem token recorded a surge in its daily active address count surpassing those of Ethereum, thanks to the messaging app’s enormous user base of 900 million. Despite its fledgling ecosystem, TON’s steady growth looks promising, driven largely by the immense distribution power of Telegram. 

With Telegram’s support, the token has a unique advantage in terms of user reach and engagement. If the network can capitalize on this foundation and continue to grow its ecosystem, it could emerge as a formidable player in the crypto space

Bitcoin’s Bear Bite: Will $60K Lows Freeze Out Investors?

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Bitcoin is currently in a phase where demand has slowed leading to a two-month low at $60K. As per analysis from CryptoQuant, the monthly growth of permanent holders [long-term investors], has posted a significant reduction from over 200K Bitcoin in late March to a mere 96 now. This indicates a slowing investor interest in accumulating Bitcoin, which could be affecting the price stability and potential for price surges.

Bitcoin prices are lingering near a two-month low at $60K, reflecting a continued slowdown in demand after Q1’s record growth. Monthly growth from permanent holders has halved in the last month, dropping from over 200K $BTC in late March to just 96 now. A rebound in demand growth is crucial for prices to stabilize and potentially surge.

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Bitcoin's Bear Bite: Will $60K Lows Freeze Out Investors? 15

While CryptoQuant focused more on the quantitative aspect of holding patterns indicating a drop in long-term holder growth, Glassnode provides context on the market sentiment and behavioral patterns contributing to the recent price trends. Glassnode analysts noted that the “euphoric phase” to cool off post-halving is due to actions by newer investors who are likely selling off Bitcoin.

Since hitting an all-time high in March, BTC retraced back consolidating within the $60,000 and $67,500 price range in the last few weeks. Examining BTC’s rise to all-time highs, analysts spotted local distribution patterns, mirroring similar structures seen in previous bull runs.

Bitcoin’s Journey from $60K to Possible $100K Highs

That being said, Egrag Crypto provided an optimistic, future-oriented projection highlighting that new historical maximums are possible in a few months. He anticipates continuous weekly closures above $73,000 in the next 4-8 months, potentially pushing the price into the six-digit range. This move is expected to catapult BTC to a six-digit price territory and possibly hit or exceed the $100,000 level.

However, if the expected rise in Bitcoin’s price does not materialize, it could indicate a deviation from historical trends, suggesting a unique market cycle with different underlying dynamics, Egrag Crypto, added.

Meme Coin Surge : 2018 ICO Disaster Repeating Itself?

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The recent meteoric rise of meme coins, epitomized by tokens like Shiba Inu (SHIB), Dogwifhat (WIF), and BOME, has sparked both excitement and concern within the cryptocurrency community. While some view these coins as a playful entry point into the world of digital assets, others, like Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, are sounding the alarm about their potentially detrimental effects on the industry.

Ju’s apprehensions stem from the viral marketing and speculative nature inherent in meme coins, which he believes pose a significant threat to the legitimacy and progress of the cryptocurrency sector. He warns against the overshadowing effect of billion-dollar meme coins on legitimate projects striving to innovate and advance the industry.

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Source: X

Drawing parallels to the speculative frenzy of the initial coin offering (ICO) era, Ju highlights the allure of easy money through meme coins, which he fears could lead to widespread losses for investors. Despite arguments that meme coins serve as a gateway for new users to enter the crypto space, Ju cautions against the risks involved, citing past failures of projects from the ICO boom in 2018.

Meme Coin Hype Masks Innovation Shortcomings

In response to counterarguments suggesting that these coins are simply a manifestation of the inherent speculation in the crypto market, Ju expresses concern about the lack of industry leaders advocating for genuine product development. He observes a troubling trend wherein the market gravitates towards gambling rather than fostering innovation and building tangible solutions.

Ju emphasizes the importance of visionary leaders like Changpeng Zhao, the former CEO of Binance, who champion substantive products and innovation within the industry. Zhao’s leadership exemplifies a commitment to driving the industry forward with meaningful contributions.

As the crypto community grapples with the implications of meme coins, it becomes evident that a balance must be struck between fostering innovation and managing speculative fervor. With regulatory scrutiny intensifying and industry leaders like Zhao under legal scrutiny, the future of meme coins and their impact on the broader cryptocurrency landscape remains uncertain. However, Ju’s warnings serve as a timely reminder of the potential pitfalls of chasing quick gains in an evolving market.

Bitcoin’s $69K Wild Ride: Decade-Old Addresses Holds The Key

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A new chapter unfolds as Bitcoin achieves a historic high. With a fleeting wick of $69,210, the dominant crypto has set a new ATH for the first time since Nov 8th, 2021, before swiftly dropping to $63K. Over $1.1 billion in assets, mostly long orders, were liquidated during this period. Notably, CryptoQuant data showed a transfer of 1,000 BTCs [worth roughly $69 million] to Coinbase.

These addresses, having existed for over a decade, could be associated with a substantial quantity of BTC mined in 2010, a factor that may have contributed to the recent price decline. Market analysts view this transfer of Bitcoin from long-standing holders to new owners as a positive development, reflecting a shifting dynamic in the market.

Let’s be honest A lot of people did not expect BTC to get back to ATH territory, with Fed Funds at 5.33% and the average mortgage rate at 7.27% It was a speculative, zero-interest rate, easy money phenomenon. They said, “Boy, do we have news for you?

Given the volatile nature of the cryptocurrency market, the question that lingers is: what will be the ATH of this bull run? Experts caution against panicking and suggest adopting a long-term perspective on the Web3 ecosystem. Several macro factors will play a key role in the coming months, with interest rates playing a significant part. If interest rates are reduced this year, we can expect a further increase in liquidity.

Bitcoin ETF

Notably, the last time Bitcoin surpassed its all-time peak, its price tripled in just 103 days. That would take the BTC price to $213,000 by June if this is repeated. Despite the sharp price drop, the spot ETF market continues to set records with $10 billion in volume, indicating profit-taking activity. As of March 5, there was $648 million in total net inflow.

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Bitcoin's $69K Wild Ride: Decade-Old Addresses Holds The Key 18

The biggest issuer, BlackRock, has sought to buy more Bitcoin ETFs for its Strategic Income Opportunities Fund [SIO]. In a recent filing with the SEC, the leading AUM stated that through SIO, it aims to offer investors appealing earnings, returns, and substantial diversification for their investment portfolio.

The Fund may acquire shares in exchange-traded products [“ETPs”] that seek to reflect generally the performance of the price of BTC by directly holding BTC [“ ETPs”], including shares of a BTC ETP sponsored by an affiliate of BlackRock.

Bitcoin’s Bull Run Countdown: Don’t Miss Out

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Bitcoin is on the cusp of an exhilarating bull run, and the journey has already begun. Cryptoquant analysts shed light on the most burning question: When will the bull run finally kick off? The start of the upcoming bull rally and the potential correction that might precede it. Examining the crucial profit supply metric, approximately 93% of BTC holders who have either bought or sold in the past year have secured gains, indicating their purchase price was lower than the current market value.

These figures remain unchanged as of February 25, 2024. In comparison to the previous cycle, when the share of profitable supply neared 96%, CryptoQuant experts noted the profit-taking frenzy and a widespread market correction, after which the market entered a bull rally phase. If history repeats itself, the researchers anticipate a further increase in BTC’s price.

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Additionally, when the share of profitable supply reaches a level greater than 96%, investors could take profits, and the price would correct before the start of the bull rally in 2024. “I think we can assume that soon the price will rise to the level of 55–60K or even form a new ATH, after which the market will go into a correction, at the end of which a bull rally will begin,” wrote the on-chain expert.

Ripple Effect of ETFs On Bitcoin’s Soaring Prices

Market observer Fred Krueger spoke on the correlation between Bitcoin exchange-traded funds [ETFs] and its price. Citing billionaire George Soros’ reflexivity theory, Krueger opined that market prices and investor outlooks would act as mutual catalysts for each other’s growth in positive feedback loops, culminating in a sort of chain reaction.

The Gold ETF added price pressure, but nowhere near as much as the BTC ETF will. Even today, the entire Gold ETFs represent 1.5% of the Gold market versus 3.5% for BTC ETFs. That means the price pressure from reflexivity is going to be MUCH BIGGER than people expect.

With Bitcoin soaring to $56k, ETF exchange flow has skyrocketed. According to the data shared by Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, trading volumes for the “new nine” spot Bitcoin ETF have tapped a new daily high of $2.4 billion, smashing its earlier record of $2.2 billion on Jan 11.