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Bitcoin to Hit $100K by Year-End, Says BitMEX Founder Arthur Hayes

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Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX, shared an optimistic outlook for Bitcoin (BTC), Dogecoin (DOGE), and the broader crypto market. He anticipates Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by year-end and $250,000 by 2025. Hayes also foresees Dogecoin climbing to $1, underpinned by growing interest in memecoins.

TradFi Firms Fuel Bitcoin and Crypto Growth

Hayes highlights the role of traditional finance (TradFi) firms in fueling crypto’s next major rally. He believes TradFi investors will allocate funds to prominent projects as the market gains momentum. This influx could initially boost legitimate projects but may later drive overvaluation in less credible assets.

As the cycle progresses, excessive credit allocation might create price bubbles in certain sectors. Hayes cautions that risky investments could emerge when TradFi funding flows into speculative projects. Such dynamics might lead to a market correction if valuations disconnect from reality.

While Hayes acknowledges risks, he sees the current market as far from its speculative peak. He remains confident about Bitcoin’s upward trajectory as more institutional capital enters the crypto ecosystem.

Bitcoin and Dogecoin Expected to Skyrocket

Hayes predicts Bitcoin’s price will surge, potentially reaching $100,000 by the end of this year. He links this growth to increasing adoption by TradFi firms and speculative retail enthusiasm. By 2025, he envisions Bitcoin scaling to $250,000 as the market matures.

Regarding Dogecoin, Hayes expresses optimism for the memecoin sector’s sustained growth. He sees Dogecoin hitting $1, driven by community interest and speculative trading. The broader trend in memecoins reflects growing appetite for lighthearted and engaging crypto assets.

These bullish forecasts suggest that both assets could benefit from expanding adoption and increased market liquidity. Hayes emphasizes that these milestones depend on maintaining a balance between enthusiasm and realistic valuations.

Hayes warns that overvaluation could become a challenge as the crypto rally matures. He believes excessive capital in speculative projects could destabilize the market. TradFi firms may need to approach investments cautiously to avoid misallocation.

Political Shifts Won’t Stop Bitcoin’s Ascent: Arthur Hayes

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In a recent interview, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX and a prominent figure in the crypto world, discussed a range of topics, including the potential impact of political changes on cryptocurrency, the evolution of the crypto industry, and Bitcoin’s future.

Hayes, who began his finance career in September 2008 on Deutsche Bank’s trading floor in Hong Kong, shared how the abrupt collapse of Lehman Brothers marked a dramatic shift in the financial landscape. It was during this time of transformation that Hayes discovered Bitcoin, which he described as aligning perfectly with his views on the corrupt banking system.

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A decade later, Hayes reflects on how the crypto industry, while vibrant and diverse, is increasingly mirroring the traditional finance sector it once sought to disrupt. Major financial institutions like BlackRock and Franklin Templeton now offer accessible investment options in cryptocurrencies, and Fidelity is pushing to include Bitcoin in American pension funds.

Despite this growing mainstream acceptance, Hayes believes the core spirit of the crypto community remains unchanged. Addressing current political dynamics, Hayes expressed skepticism about the role of politicians in advancing cryptocurrency interests.

He noted that regardless of whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris wins the election, the fundamental challenges of governmental opposition to crypto remain. Hayes argued that the entrenched financial institutions and regulatory bodies are significant obstacles that any new administration would struggle to overcome.

Bitcoin’s Resilience Against Monetary Expansion

On the topic of Bitcoin and monetary policy, Hayes was resolute in his belief that regardless of who is in power, the continuous expansion of money supply is inevitable. This monetary inflation, he argues, will ultimately benefit Bitcoin. Despite the volatility and risks associated with the cryptocurrency, Hayes remains bullish on its long-term prospects.

Regarding the SEC and its chairman, Gary Gensler, Hayes suggested that the real issue is not Gensler himself but rather the broader regulatory framework. He criticized the focus on individual regulators instead of addressing the systemic issues within the regulatory environment.

Hayes also shared his views on the idea of a Bitcoin reserve, noting that while it’s a compelling concept, it’s highly improbable given the current political and economic landscape. He believes that while Bitcoin and gold could offer a strategic advantage, the U.S. government is unlikely to prioritize Bitcoin over gold.

However, looking ahead, Hayes is optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to reach new highs, driven by global monetary changes and massive debt levels, despite the resistance to change from entrenched financial powers.

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BitMEX Guilty: Faces Massive 5 Years for BSA Violation

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BitMEX, the Seychelles-based crypto exchange, has pleaded guilty to violating the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA). This was announced on Wednesday by the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ).

Court documents reveal that BitMEX failed to establish an adequate know-your-customer (KYC) and anti-money laundering (AML) program. This lapse occurred between September 2015 and September 2020. During this period, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charged the exchange with offering illicit crypto derivative trading services to U.S. customers. The DOJ charged four of the exchange’s employees with BSA violations.

Until September 2020, BitMEX allowed customers to register and trade cryptocurrency anonymously, without any identifying information or documentation. The DOJ claims the exchange promoted itself as a platform where users could trade without real-name verification. This lax approach to AML/KYC standards, prosecutors say, made the exchange a hub for money laundering and sanctions violations.

U.S. Attorney Damian Williams commented,

“As BitMEX’s founders and long-time employee admitted in federal court in 2022, the company operated in the United States without any meaningful anti-money laundering program, as required by federal law. As a result, BitMEX opened itself up as a vehicle for large-scale money laundering and sanctions evasion schemes, posing a serious threat to the integrity of the financial system. Today’s guilty plea indicates again the need for cryptocurrency companies to comply with U.S. law if they take advantage of the U.S. market.”

BitMEX’s Old Charges

The 2020 charges against BitMEX’s co-founders Arthur Hayes, Samuel Reed, and Benjamin Delo, and its first employee, Gregory Dwyer, are nearly identical to the charge the exchange pleaded guilty to. The executives previously pleaded guilty as well.

In addition, BitMEX pleaded guilty to lying to a foreign bank as part of its BSA violation. The company and its executives made false statements to an unnamed international bank to convince it to open an account for a shell company called Shine Effort Inc. Limited. The exchange was the beneficial owner of this company.

A DOJ spokesperson did not comment on why the charges against BitMEX were filed four years after the same charges were filed against its executives. The exchange has not yet been sentenced. The case is being overseen by U.S. District Judge John G. Koeltl of the Southern District of New York. The exchange’s representatives did not respond to requests for comment.

BitMEX Sees Massive Bitcoin Outflow: What This Means for the Crypto Market

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A popular on-chain data provider, CryptoQuant, has shared that BitMEX has seen the second-highest outflow of Bitcoin in its history. This withdrawal of 35,486 BTC has attracted a lot of attention and discussions within the crypto space and could have an impact on other markets.

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In the past, the “Exchange Netflow” indicator on BitMEX has been very much associated with the price of Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin rises when this indicator goes deep into the negative territory, where large outflows of BTC generally occur. The recent netflow of 35,486 BTC is quite significant and can be considered as one of the largest outflows from the platform to date which has naturally piqued the interest of the market.

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Major BTC Moves On BitMEX

Outflows of large amounts of Bitcoin from BitMEX have been taken to mean that big investors are withdrawing their funds. This is more of a transfer to a cold wallet for safekeeping or selling in another exchange at a more convenient time. Such actions alleviate the immediate selling pressure on BitMEX, thus supporting or even boosting the price of Bitcoin.

Events of this nature that have occurred in the BitMEX platform have in the past been known to predict the rise in Bitcoin prices. Therefore, it is very important for investors and market enthusiasts to pay a lot of attention to the Exchange Netflow indicator on BitMEX, since these strategic actions directly affect the crypto market.

The platform continues to play a significant part in determining the trends of the market as seen by the second largest outflow of Bitcoin in the platform’s history. In response to this major occurrence, investors and analysts are analyzing the situation, while the members of the crypto community are waiting for the prices to change and the strategies of market participants to change.

Ethereum ETF Approval Still Viable, Says BlackRock’s Fink

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The head of asset management powerhouse, BlackRock, remains optimistic about the prospects of an Ethereum spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) coming to market, even if regulators deem the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency a security. Larry Fink’s confident stance emerges as the Securities and Exchange Commission nears a May deadline to rule on applications from eight issuers looking to launch such a product.

While the prevailing sentiment among industry observers is that the SEC will reject the Ethereum ETF proposals no matter how it ultimately classifies the digital asset, Fink believes approval remains a possibility. In a recent interview on Fox Business, the BlackRock CEO responded affirmatively when asked if an Ethereum ETF could still go forward under a security designation.

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Fink’s conviction likely stems from the overwhelming success of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust. Branded by the CEO as “the fastest growing ETF in the history of ETFs,” the fund has raked in over $15 billion in assets under just two and a half months on the market.

The ability of the Bitcoin ETF to inject considerable liquidity and transparency into the market appears to have opened Fink’s eyes to the transformative potential of such products tracking other digital assets beyond just Bitcoin. If his firm’s wildly popular Bitcoin offering is any indication, there could be a substantial appetite among investors for convenient, regulated exposure to Ethereum through an exchange-traded fund.

However, not everyone shares Fink’s optimism. Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart has gone on record stating his expectation that the SEC will ultimately reject the current crop of Ethereum ETF applications when the regulator’s ruling comes down in May. While Seyffart acknowledged the need for further review of Fidelity’s recent filing for a staking Ethereum ETF, his overall assessment suggests the proposals face an uphill battle.

Advocates for Ethereum ETFs

But the asset management giants aren’t alone in their advocacy for an Ethereum ETF. Arthur Hayes, former CEO of pioneering crypto derivatives platform BitMEX, has argued forcefully that the success of Bitcoin ETFs essentially paves the way for similar products tied to other digital assets like Ethereum and Solana. Given the lucrative fees such offerings could generate for major financial institutions, Hayes contends banks have a vested interest in seeing them approved.

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Grayscale’s Chief Legal Officer Craig Salm has also voiced support, stating that the SEC’s perceived lack of engagement with issuers on technical details should not be viewed as an indicator of the final outcome. Many of those operational intricacies, Salm reasons, have already been ironed out through the approval process for Bitcoin ETFs.

However, the crypto world holds its breath as the back-and-forth plays out ahead of the SEC’s looming decision. The ramifications of the regulator’s ruling could profoundly impact the acceptance and accessibility of Ethereum for investors through mainstream, regulated investment vehicles.

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BitMex Co-Founder Sparks Debate: Is Cardano’s dApp Ecosystem Falling Short?

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Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, recently triggered an X (Twitter) storm with the ADA community about decentralized applications (dApps) on Cardano’s blockchain. In his X post, he criticized ADA advocates for failing to create any meaningful dApps on Cardano and called ADA “dog shit” while asking Cardano’s co-founder Charles Hoskinson for some education.

The post got an impulsive response from various members of the crypto field. In reply, market expert Dan Gambardello, Founder of Crypto Capital Venture, points out that it is not just enough to judge the network on the basis of trust but a proper grasp of its technical fundamentals.

Gambardello accentuated its native liquid staking system, which sits within its Ouroboros protocol, allowing ADA holders to stake without locking their funds for some definite time while displaying innovativeness and security features. He also said that unlike some protocols calling for additional dApps like Lido Finance, Cardano’s architecture accommodates them naturally, attracting value investors focusing on safety and stability.

Another member entered into the discussion, stressing that it was necessary to evaluate digital currencies through their technicalities rather than hype or price fluctuations. He observed that Cardano had a vibrant grassroots ecosystem in contrast to what one would have typically expected from other cryptocurrency projects of its kind since it has been making real technological progress. On the other hand, he disputed Hayes’ pessimism by stating that the real value of the network is in its solid infrastructure and capacity to develop a decentralized applications environment.

Insights Into Cardano’s Consensus Mechanism

Meanwhile, Cardano YODA, perusing the subtleties of blockchain consensus mechanisms, went into the safety and liveness of network operations. According to his X post, the comparison with other forms of consensus models like Solana and Ripple revolved around trade-offs between safety, liveliness, and transaction finality, which demonstrate the network’s bias towards liveness rather than safety.

Explaining safety and liveness in consensus algorithms, Cardano YODA showed how transaction finality is guaranteed by Ouroboros through a probabilistic mechanism that balances security needs with ongoing network operation requirements. Also, this highlights the resilience of Cardano against attempts to hack its blockchain by citing a security report from CERTIK that demonstrates the project’s strength compared to its peers in terms of total value locked (TVL).

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Nevertheless, Cardano’s reputation as a secure and modern technology platform still stood unscathed throughout this discussion. Its proponents have pointed out that it was distinguished by uniqueness and had innovative technology. The community continued to believe in the future and the network’s value proposition to the world of fast-evolving cryptography despite the dApp adoption phase leading to criticism.

BitMEX Founder’s Bearish Bitcoin Outlook: Prepares For Dip Below $35k

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BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes recently shared his insights on the current state of the financial markets, focusing on Bitcoin’s potential support level and the actions of key figures like US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Bitcoin Support Projections

According to a recent blog post, Hayes believed that Bitcoin could find support between $30,000 and $35,000. To position himself for this scenario, he revealed that he had purchased $35,000 strike puts set to expire on March 29th, 2024. In preparation for the potential BTC dip, Hayes disclosed that he had sold his trading positions in Solana and Bonk at a slight loss, emphasizing his intent to start “bottom fishing” once Bitcoin drops below $35,000.

Discussing the actions of Yellen and Powell, Hayes characterized their approach as oscillating between decisive actions and vague talking points. Yellen’s decision to shift borrowing to Treasury bills (T-bills) was highlighted as a move that injected significant liquidity into the markets. On the other hand, Powell’s talk about potential rate cuts and tapering of Quantitative Tightening (QT) was seen as mere rhetoric without immediate monetary stimulus.

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Hayes criticized the market’s interpretation of both Yellen and Powell’s actions and words as if they were equivalent, noting that while Yellen’s actions added liquidity, Powell’s talk did not result in increased monetary stimulus. Despite the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 hitting new all-time highs, Hayes cautioned that the real indicator of dollar liquidity, Bitcoin, was showing signs of concern, dropping from $48,000 to below $40,000.

He argued against two common explanations for Bitcoin’s recent dip – outflows from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) and anticipation of the non-renewal of the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP). Hayes contended that the second argument was more valid, suggesting that the cessation of the BTFP could lead to a mini-financial crisis, contrary to the confidence exhibited by Yellen and Powell.

Hayes concluded by providing charts to support his view that the Fed is trapped between inflation and a potential banking crisis, with Bitcoin acting as a key indicator. He emphasized the importance of watching Yellen’s upcoming actions, particularly in the Quarterly Refunding Announcement (QRA) on January 31st, to gauge the market’s direction.

However, Hayes painted a complex picture of the current financial landscape, expressing skepticism about the effectiveness of central bank communication and highlighting Bitcoin as a leading indicator for broader market movements.

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Bitcoin Faces Steep Decline, Dips Below $40K

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Bitcoin plummeted to a six-week low, falling rapidly from a recent high of $41,553 to a worrisome $39,536 today. The cryptocurrency market, in general, witnessed a tumultuous Monday, with Bitcoin experiencing a 4.3% drop in the last 24 hours and a staggering 9.3% decline over the last 30 days. Santiment, a crypto market data provider, reported that Bitcoin briefly slipped below the $40,000 mark for the first time since December 4th.

Currently, BTC is trading at $40,043.71, adding another layer of uncertainty to the already volatile market. Market analysts suggest that fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) are creeping into the cryptocurrency space, potentially creating opportunities for price rebounds when the FUD reaches its peak.

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BitMEX Co-founder’s Prediction: Bitcoin Below $40,000

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes made a bold prediction yesterday, stating that Bitcoin would dip below $40,000. To hedge against this anticipated decline, Hayer reportedly purchased put options with a strike price of $35,000, expiring on March 29. The co-founder’s move indicates a lack of confidence in the short-term performance of Bitcoin. Hayer might have acquired these put options at a price of 0.025 BTC per share, totaling 5 BTC.

Market analyst Mags share insights on potential future trends. Mags highlighted the importance of recognizing patterns in Bitcoin’s historical corrections, pointing out the four stages: consolidation at the same level, slow bleeding over weeks, acceleration of the decline, and finally, finding support and a quick recovery. Mags emphasized the need for vigilance, especially considering the lengthening consolidation periods observed after each correction.

In the midst of market uncertainty, Mags advised followers not to miss the next potential dip in Bitcoin’s price. According to Mags, recognizing whether the ongoing consolidation is re-accumulation or a local swing high is challenging. However, for those with a bullish long-term outlook, eyeing targets of $80,000 to $100,000 or beyond, Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA) after a significant pullback from the local top is recommended.

Mags reminded investors that the Bitcoin halving is just 85 to 90 days away, coinciding with a potential new all-time high. With this perspective, Mags sees the current dip as possibly the last before the market enters a sustained bullish trend.

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Bitcoin ETFs: Europe Investor FOMO Triggers $106M Outflow

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In the wake of the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s [SEC] green light for 11 spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds [ETFs], a wave of FOMO [Fear of Missing Out] has swept through the European crypto community. While the US market is abuzz with excitement, European investors are reevaluating their positions as the US ETFs gain prominence.

The crypto landscape in Europe already features a variety of crypto exchange-traded products [ETPs], providing retail investors with exposure to digital assets. However, the recent SEC approval has triggered a notable shift. According to BitMEX Research, just four days after the approval of the US Bitcoin spot ETF, the four largest European Bitcoin ETPs recorded a staggering single-day outflow of $30 million. This trend continued, resulting in a total outflow of approximately $106 million over five days.

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Bitcoin ETFs: Europe Investor FOMO Triggers $106M Outflow 8

The shift in investor sentiment is evident in the data provided by Cointucky Derby on day four of the ETF flow update. While US data is yet to be disclosed, European investors are moving away from high-fee BTC ETPs, contributing to a $30 million outflow across the four largest European products on that day alone.

Notably, European ETP giants like 21Shares, CoinShares, and WisdomTree have been at the forefront of this movement. Initially, when uncertainty surrounded the approval of a spot ETF in the US, market experts were banking on Europe. Despite the introduction of Europe’s first spot Bitcoin ETF on August 15, 2023, regulatory hurdles have made a Bitcoin ETF less likely in the region. However, existing ETPs demonstrate Europe’s progressive stance on crypto products.

Bitcoin ETP Giant

The ETC Group, boasting a $1.3 billion AUM market value for its BTC ETP, leads the European market. Following the SEC’s approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF, the ETC Group announced a new ETP tracking 20 leading digital assets.

While skepticism persists regarding the possibility of a spot ETF in Europe, not everyone views the situation with caution. Thomas Romain, the commercial director of crypto exchange Bitpanda in France, emphasized the significance of adapting to the evolving landscape, stating, “Any European bank or financial institution that isn’t ready to adapt is going to be left behind very quickly.” He sees the SEC-approved institutions as “massive institutions with trillions of dollars under management,” signaling a major shift in the global financial industry’s embrace of digital assets.

MicroStrategy Continues Bitcoin Buying Spree Ahead of Potential ETF Approval

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MicroStrategy has once again demonstrated its unwavering commitment to Bitcoin, acquiring an additional 14,620 BTC for a staggering $615.7 million in cash. The recent purchase, made between November 20, 2023, and December 26, 2023, was disclosed in the company’s 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

BTC ETF Anticipation: MicroStrategy Grows Holdings

MicroStrategy’s latest Bitcoin stash, obtained at an average cost of approximately $42,110 per BTC, contributes to the company’s impressive aggregate holdings, now totaling 189,150 BTC. This accumulation comes at an aggregate purchase price of around $5.9 billion, with an average cost per Bitcoin of roughly $31,168.

This move follows a substantial acquisition in November 2023, where MicroStrategy procured 16,130 Bitcoins at a price of $36,785 per Bitcoin. Prior to that, the company made notable purchases of 6,067 BTC in September and October 2023 and 12,333 BTC in June, signaling a consistent and aggressive approach to Bitcoin investment.

MicroStrategy’s relentless pursuit of Bitcoin aligns with the vision of its co-founder and prominent Bitcoin advocate, Michael Saylor. Saylor has expressed the belief that a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) could mark the “biggest development on Wall Street in 30 years.”

The timing of MicroStrategy’s latest acquisition is noteworthy, given the widespread anticipation surrounding January 10, a date when the crypto community expects potential approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Saylor argues that a spot Bitcoin ETF could be a game-changer, opening the doors for mainstream retail and institutional investors who have been previously unable to access Bitcoin. However, not everyone shares this optimistic view.

Bitcoin analyst Josef Tětek from Trezor raises concerns about the implications of a spot Bitcoin ETF. Tětek suggests that such an ETF could distance individuals from self-custody, potentially leading to the creation of “millions of unbacked Bitcoin.” Skeptics, including BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, go even further, warning that if spot Bitcoin ETFs prove too successful, they could “completely destroy” the integrity of Bitcoin.

As the industry eagerly awaits the SEC’s decision on the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF, MicroStrategy’s ongoing Bitcoin acquisitions underscore the company’s dedication to digital assets and its belief in the transformative power of cryptocurrencies.

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