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Bitcoin Price Movements: Is $90K Within Reach or Will Support Hold at $73K?

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  • Bitcoin has been volatile, with no clear direction, awaiting a breakout that could lead to significant price movement.
  • If Bitcoin fails to reclaim previous price levels, it may test support around $73K-$74K before any further moves.
  • Despite a 30% correction, Bitcoin remains within a larger bull cycle, with long-term bullish indicators pointing to growth.

Bitcoin has been quite the rollercoaster in the last couple of weeks, the movement does not seem to have a distinct trend. In an X post on Monday,  Daan Crypto highlighted that cryptocurrency has not been able to establish multiple green or red candles since March 11th local low. Such zone pattern is common during consolidation and may be interpreted as bearish or bullish depending on their context as usually provides some strong movements afterwards.

Bitcoin Support and Resistance Levels

The price of Bitcoin at the moment is floating in this area which can be termed as a ‘no trend zone’. Daan notes that the bulls are able to regain control if the price climbs back up its previous trading range. This is likely to bring back bullish outlook in the future as well as meaning that in the near future different ATHs will be set. Alternatively, if BTC fails to recapture this level, it will likely retest the 2024 area around $73K-$74K, which is expected to provide some support.

However, in the long run, analyst  still has a bullish outlook on Bitcoin due to several factors. HODLers should remember that this kind of correction happens about every five months, Bitcoin is now down 30% from where it started, yet remains part of an even bigger bull cycle. Key indicators reveal BTC has faced even worse corrections in the past only to rebound and go higher compared to previous scenarios. 

Market Volatility and Trends

According to Daan, BTC would have to maintain closures below the $70K level for a long time without some fundamental event to explain why it is there. Lack of such an event a decline to these level may be a buying signal to investors.

Further continuing the positive trend, Michael van de Poppe stated that the price of BTC continues to make higher lows, a potent sign of an upward trend in the crypto market. The BTC chart suggests a minor dip in the next several days but remains bullish about the BTC price, which might rise to the $90K level in the current week. His analysis implies that while the current trends may show volatility, there is a long-term uptrend for the BTC.

The state of Bitcoin market has become rather volatile, which indicates that the market continues consolidating. If Bitcoin sustains its price above these marked resistance levels, then it may be possible to achieve a nice run in the short term.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) Whale Activity Soars: Can It Break $86K?

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  • Bitcoin’s Exchange Whale Ratio has reached its highest level in a year, indicating increased whale activity.
  • Bitcoin struggles to sustain upward momentum, with resistance at $86,000 and support at $76,600.
  • A breakout above $82,000 and $86,000 resistance could push Bitcoin toward $90,000, pending strong volume.

Analytical platform CryptoQuant pointed out that there was such a significant change in the Bitcoin market because the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio rose to the highest level in a year. This ratio of the top 10 inflows to the overall inflows in exchanges suggests that there is an upsurge in activity of the BTC whales. A high ratio means that these whales are likely using a big portion of their BTC deposits to invest in other assets or to shift to another exchange to sell their BTC at certain times in the market.

Key Levels for Bitcoin’s Recovery

Bitcoin has not been able to sustain the upsurge towards the north despite efforts to have a break out. This digital asset has been declining from its highest value of around $99,508 and was trading at a low of $76,600. There is an indication that BTC has begun to recover but this has been coupled with a reduced volume implying that the buyers are losing interest. 

The price range of $86,000 to $87,000 remains a key resistance area for BTC and the former support of $76,600 level. It must rise above $82,000 to maintain this sort of trend for momentum to build up for a positive market sentiment.

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Source: TradingView

In the BTC price analysis, traders and analysts are keen to see whether the cryptocurrency can get out of the resistance area. In this case, if BTC remains above the $82,000 support level and finally breaks through the $86,000 resistance level with good volume, the choice would open the way to the $90,000 mark. 

The MACD, which indicates the ability to buy at the current price, enriches the potential for an upturn at this stage. This change of momentum would be profound, since it would suggest that the external environment could be moving into an up-cycle after having been under pressure for an extended period.

Whale Activity Impacts Bitcoin

However, the evidence of the influence of the market is still quite ambiguous. If BTC fails to augmented over the resistance level and cannot hold higher than $82,000, there will likely be selling pressure which may result to the lower end. The key factors that will dictate the further direction of the price movement for BTC are such indicators as whale activity, support and resistance levels, volume.

Although Bitcoin is on an upward trend again, the current activity of whales, and the conditions in the market imply that another wave of fluctuations is possible. It will be important for investor to look out for any break out above specific resistance levels since this market will continue to experience bearish run in the upcoming weeks.

Is Bitcoin Heading Toward a Bear Market or a Bullish Reversal?

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  • Bulls have failed to push Bitcoin above key resistance levels, keeping the market range-bound.
  • After a 29% drop since January, analysts are eyeing key indicators to predict if a bear market is forming.
  • To confirm a recovery, Bitcoin must break past the $85,500–$86,000 resistance zone and reach higher levels.

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained under immense pressure below key levels as the bulls have not been able to kick-start a recovery rally. On X post on Saturday, Daan Crypto Trades predicted that Bitcoin’s price may not predictably move up or down this weekend and may range. As volatility remains relatively low and there is less news flow, prospects for violent, low – movement appear high.

Bitcoin’s Decline Since January

Currently, BTC was already in descent from the record high in January and is down now more than 29% then the subsequent peak. This situation has elicited mixed feelings with some analysts arguing that a bear market may be emerging. Currently both investors and traders are paying a lot of attention to the indicators so as to decipher whether the trend is set to reverse.

However there are some indications which points to the fact that BTC may be preparing for a change. MVRV momentum is almost overbought and is approaching a potential golden cross pattern with the 180-day SMA on the chart. In the past, this has been associated with a change in trend towards the higher levels in the BTC price index. Ali Martinez stated that this may cause a change in the market direction if it occurs.

Yet, here are some challenges that under current and future scenarious have Bitcoin: Currently, the price is kept below several key levels which are $85,500 – $86,000 – the 200 SMA and the 200 EMA. Such a scenario shows that, with Bitcoin’s bulls yet to push past these levels, failure to break the levels indicates that there is a possibility of a recovery rally towards previous higher levels.

Bulls Struggle to Break Key Barriers

Bitcoin is now at $84,467, which is still below the critical $88,000–$90,000 mark. This is a major hurdle for the bulls to overcome. These levels are crucial in the present trading because traders are looking for the break out. If it managed to overcome these hurdles, then this will be the signal that the recent decline is over and a new upward movement begins.

Currently, the attitude of investors is rather passive and waiting for positive changes. While most of the technical signs point towards a probable shift in the prevailing market trend, it is cardinal for Bitcoin to defend current price levels and break past specific barriers. The next several days will tell whether the key levels are going to provide Bitcoin with the ability to regain the upward movement or continue to be range-bound.

Bitcoin’s Fear Index Hits Extreme: Will History Repeat Itself?

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  • Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index has dropped to “Extreme Fear,” raising speculation about a potential price rebound.
  • Analysts remain divided, with some predicting a prolonged bearish phase while others expect a strong recovery.
  • Bitcoin struggles below the $85,502 resistance; a breakout could push it to $90K, while a drop below $78,258 signals further decline.

Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has again fallen to “Extreme Fear” that has raised eyebrows among investors. Mags stressed in an X post for the community that usually Bitcoin bounces back after touching this level. The last such occasion was in September 2024 when the price of Bitcoin was at $54,000 before shooting up by over 100%. This raise the question in the mind of many traders whether that kind of a recovery can still be witnessed in future.  

Bitcoin’s Bearish Market Outlook

Nevertheless, there are still some analysts who are skeptical about the prognosis of Bitcoin. Ki Young Ju of CryptoQuant has yet another bearish view as he believes that this period is no longer a bull cycle. From the assessment by Ju, it was established that Bitcoin can possibly remain stagnant or even drop for between 6 to 12 months. He opined that several key on-chain indicators suggest a weakening market. With new money no longer flowing into the ecosystem many of these new whales are rather disposed to dumping their stocks at lower prices.  

This market instability has been clearly demonstrated by BTC current price volatilities. This has been rejected at the 200-day Exponential Moving Average at around $85,502 and has not been able to rise much above this for the past 5 trading days. This level is also near the daily resistance area as defined by the green ‘zone’ at around $85,000 and is hence a crucial level for BTC.  

Key Levels for Bitcoin

Macroeconomic analysis to some extent relies on the presence of trends but the current situation does not show strong trend in any direction. This is a technical reason as well as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below its midpoint of 50 which points to weak buying signals. However, a death cross has formed and it shows a bearish sign because the price of Bitcoin formed a low low on 11th March, while RSI formed a higher low for the same period. Such a pattern is typical of potential changes of direction or at least in the near future, an upward movement.  

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Source: TradingView

If the price rises above the 200-day EMA at $85,502, it can go further up to $90k. This would confirm the buy signal and instigate a fresh rise to new high levels of the United Steelmakers share price. On the other hand, if the Bitcoin breaks down below $78,258, which was the price on February 28, there will be a bears run down to $73,072.  

As Bitcoin has stayed close to the key price level, people are waiting for an important reaction to that level. Whether it is going to bounce back or fall in the future depends on overall stock market performance and market sentiment in the future weeks.

Bitcoin’s Next Big Move: Are We Headed for a $130,000 Rally or Decline?

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  • Bitcoin must hold between $93,500 and $95,500 on a three-day basis to prevent a potential drop toward the $72,000 to $73,000 range
  • Large investors known as whales appear to be stepping in possibly stabilizing the market and restraining the ongoing sell-off
  • Despite short-term dips analyst remain bullish, predicting a Bitcoin cycle top between $130,000 and $175,000 based on Fibonacci levels

The price of Bitcoin has sharply fallen down and this has raised some concerns within traders and analysts. The latest decline has caused significant concern with a view to the market conditions in analyzing whether it is set to experience further decline. Amid such high volatility, large investors, known as whales, seem to be gearing up for more control, and possibly combating to restrain the extent of the ongoing sell-off.

Key Levels for Bitcoin

Egrag has unveiled certain crucial levels that could define BTC’s immediate movement. He notes that BTC needs to hold within $93,500- $95,500 on a three-day basis to prevent further drops. If this support collapses, another decline may occur, possibly towards $72,000 to $73,000, which may lead to additional selloffs.  

However, as for now, analyst still believes in the long-term prospect of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He has kept rallying cycle top forecasts with a minimum of $130,000 as regarded in the current quandary. His profit target is at $ 175,000 based on the Fibonacci 1.618 level. These projections are in line with other analysts’ consensus that the current bear phase in bitcoin can be explained by a long-term bullish one.  

Bulls vs Bears Battle

The next few days shall be very important in as much as its direction is concerned because investors will be trying to figure out whether it can stage a comeback. This movement from institutional buyers and whales may well be enough to hold prices right near the momentary and steady the BTC price and take it toward the important resistance levels. However, if the bearish pressure surrounds the asset, Bitcoin will be unable to surpass crucial levels on the chart.  

The outlook among the investors is still bearish, while some are optimistic because they believe that the current decline is as a good buying signal, there are those who are anticipating more turmoil due to correction. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and for this reason, the price changes of Bitcoin heavily influence the market. Thus, players are being very passive in their trade waiting for a confirmation of a reversal pattern.  

In the near term the direction of Bitcoin depends on whether it will be able to sustain above some important supports. In case bulls take charge of the cryptocurrencies once more, then there is every likelihood that the cryptocurrency would experience a massive bounce up and could gear up for another rally once again. However, if the bearish momentum persists, BTC can return to a sideways trading range or plunge even more. The market now anticipates the next big move that would be instrumental for bitcoin in the coming weeks.

Bitcoin (BTC) on the Edge: Will It Break Resistance or Face Another Reversal?

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  • Bitcoin struggles to break resistance, keeping traders cautious amid ongoing market uncertainty.
  • A breakout above $86,929 could shift focus, but weak breakouts risk quick reversals.
  • BTC must hold above $84,000 to confirm momentum, or risk further downside pressure.

Bitcoin is not able to rise beyond its critical levels hence continues to cause anxiety among traders. Nonetheless, the price has not been able to break the resistance level and is still moving in a lateral pattern in the market. Concerns have been raised that if it does not gain a confirmed breakout, Bitcoin will remain a rather volatile market in the short term.  

Breakout or Liquidity Trap?

More Crypto online stated that the BTC has not broken through the resistance as preserved the current market standing. But if the price goes above $86,929 it will lead to focusing on other resistance levels by traders. However, it is important to exercise a lot of care as the weak breakouts tend to reverse with a lot of force thereby trapping many investors.  

Traders are encouraged to wait for a breakout confirmation before making a trade according to the analysts. However, moving above a resistance level is only deemed valid when the Bitcoin price does not retreat immediately after reaching the said level. If the price bounces up, only to quickly drop back down, it is most probably a liquidity squeeze rather than a breakout. 

Market Awaits Bitcoin’s Next Move

According to Rekt Capital, the leading cryptocurrency dropped through the $84,000 mark and opening the door for more decline. However, instead of expectations, Bitcoin has reversed and is now testing the same level. Such price action indicates that sellers are running out of steam, although a close above $84,000 is required to establish higher ground.  

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Source: RektCapital

This continues to suggest that the market is still consolidating and there is no telling which direction the price of bitcoin is headed for next. The situation is characterized by high volatility with price oscillation remaining within a defined corridor and very little new positions being taken by traders. 

The $84,000 mark serves as the logical support level if Bitcoin is to establish an upward momentum towards regaining the higher resistance levels. But holding could bring the shares back to selling pressure and risks with possible downside may arise.  Currently, at the time of writing, BTC is trading at $82,702 and is up by around 0.90% in the last 24 hours.

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Source: TradingView

A few subsequent days are expected to provide an indication of further movements regarding Bitcoin. If buyers take the control, then the price may likely experience a high upward trend. However, if the resistance levels remain strong, the market may stay in a volatile area of trading in a range-bound manner with many ‘crossing of its arms’ between the bulls and bears signaling caution.

Bitcoin and Ethereum Plunge: Is This the Final Dip Before a Major Rebound?

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  • Bitcoin and Ethereum face steep declines amid market volatility, with tech stocks falling harder than BTC, causing widespread liquidations.
  • Analysts advise caution, urging traders to wait for clear price ranges, while noting potential for a Q2 recovery.
  • BTC eyes key levels at 75,327 and 75,327, while ETH struggles below $2,020, awaiting bullish signals for a rebound.

The cryptocurrency market is on the decline with Bitcoin and Ethereum being among the most affected in a fluctuating market. This has been supported by Daan Crypto Traders, a popular market analyst who has provided insights concerning the symbol X, indicating that destruction was observed in many markets. Bearish sentiments have stretched to the technology sector as tech stocks have plunged deeper than Bitcoin, making it a difficult day for investors.  

Bitcoin and Ethereum Volatility

On-chain data shows that the most affected is Ethereum as prices remain to dip down with increased liquidations. Daan pointed out that every coin is as close as it can get to an interesting technical bounce zone so he has not been very active in trading at the time of the interview. “No point knife-catching and/or getting chopped up,” he said, and explained why it was essential to wait for clear ranges to appear in Bitcoin and Ethereum charts.  

Despite this, Daan saw the positive in short-term suffering: low yields and the Trump administration’s economic targets. He expected an improved performance in the second quarter of the current year believing that the present decline might be transient. 

In the meantime, More Crypto Online gave the technical analysis of the Bitcoin from the price point of view. In a recent X post, they showed that BTC is still floating and unstable, further decreasing in Wave 3. The next important indicators of its value are $75,327 and $72,631. This was said probably indicating if this is it or is the last maneuver for the opponents. However, analyst observed that until there is a 5-wave reversal pattern and the price rises above $85,672, any rally remains questionable.

Buying Opportunity or Further Losses?

Ethereum is also under pressure with the resistance zones at $2,020 and a support region at $1,790. Bulls were expected to support the index as early as soon as this was identified as fourth wave by the analyst. However, they pointed out pitfalls such as fake bounces which pointed to situations in which prices briefly broke below support levels. However, for a meaningful change in its trend, ETH has to go beyond $2,020 and then $2,237 in the near term.  

Experts opine that there are lots of cautions to be had as the market continues to probe for the trigger with traders’ nerves and stop losses . Following Bitcoin reaching its critical support level and Ethereum not far behind, the week has the potential to reveal whether this mark is an opportunity to buy or an indication of more losses to come.  At the time of writing, BTC is trading  at $80,751 and showing a decline of 1.69% over the last one day. Currently, Ethereum declines by 7.54% and is currently trading at $1,910.

Can Bitcoin Overcome $86K Resistance or Face Further Decline?

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  • Weekly price gaps in Bitcoin signal high volatility, making short-term predictions difficult for traders.
  • The $86K level is key for Bitcoin; failure to break it could lead to further declines or a double bottom.
  • Frequent gaps indicate Bitcoin’s market is far from stabilizing, leaving traders uncertain about future trends.

Bitcoin (BTC) is characterized by high volatility, and large price gaps emerge on a weekly basis. Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that these are attributed to the volatility of the existing market. This persistent volatility is making it challenging for the traders to predict BTC in the short run as it has become even more unpredictable.

Key Bitcoin Price Levels

This price level appears to be a critical level at around $86K, and there is now a gap created around it. This level has been closely monitored by the traders in a bid to determine whether it will act as a resistance or a support level to the general trending. 

Moreover, there is an unclosed gap still near the $77,000 that opened during previous price fluctuations. This gap is still missing, and a number of market players expect its activation in the near future. These gaps’ frequent formation suggest that this is a market that is not very close to settling down any time soon. The bigger the gap, the greater the chance of price correction or trend reversal, but choosing the direction of BTC is still a problem.

Michael van de Poppe stated that currently Bitcoin is bearish and has not made higher highs after testing the important resistance points. This makes it quite evident that the price of BTC can keep on declining in the future if it fails in breaking through certain thresholds. Van de Poppe said that he believes that the $86K level is crucial for BTC. Continuing the downward trend could be likely if it cannot go lower than this price.

Double-Bottom Scenario Possible

According to the analyst, Bitcoin needs to break at least $86,000 for the cryptocurrency to continue its uptrend. He has not entirely ruled out the possibility of a double-bottom formation and new lows for BTC. Such a move would probably make the market even more unstable and initiate liquidations to eliminate marginal contracts. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $81,872 after shedding 3.9% within the last 24 hours.

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Source: TradingView

Based on these important levels, traders keep an eye on Bitcoin movements. Its presence in these gaps could change the Bitcoin price movements as the market remains unpredictable. However, given the erratic price volatility of Bitcoin, the next few weeks are going to be decisive as to whether the cryptocurrency will be able to start rising again, or if a new round of declines is to be expected.

Bitcoin Faces Volatility as Whale Holdings Drop to 2019 Lows, While Sharks Accumulate

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  • Bitcoin remains highly volatile, influenced by macroeconomic factors like regulations, interest rates, and liquidity shifts.
  • Whale holdings have dropped to their lowest levels since 2019, while mid-sized investors are aggressively accumulating.
  • BTC is testing key support around $85K–$86K, with the 200-day SMA at $81.5K acting as a crucial level.

Bitcoin (BTC) remains highly volatile, reacting sharply to macroeconomic shifts and market sentiment. After facing significant price swings, BTC is currently under downward pressure, experiencing a notable decline. Several external factors, including regulatory developments, interest rate expectations, and liquidity shifts, continue to shape its trajectory.

Whale Holdings Hit Multi-Year Lows, But Sharks Are Stacking

On-chain data reveals a significant shift in Bitcoin ownership. Wallets holding over 1,000 BTC have been steadily declining, with their supply hitting the lowest level since 2019. Notably, many of these addresses were once linked to exchanges, and the persistent outflows over the past three years have contributed to this trend.

image 43 5
Bitcoin Faces Volatility as Whale Holdings Drop to 2019 Lows, While Sharks Accumulate 10

Meanwhile, wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, often associated with institutional players, miners, and funds, are aggressively accumulating. Historically, this segment of investors has played a critical role in Bitcoin’s price cycles. Back in April 2021, during one of Bitcoin’s major bull runs, these entities were among the strongest accumulators, signaling their impact on market movements.

image 43 6
Bitcoin Faces Volatility as Whale Holdings Drop to 2019 Lows, While Sharks Accumulate 11

Smaller holders, wallets with less than 100 BTC, have historically responded to price fluctuations rather than driving them. Data shows they tend to sell during rallies rather than accumulate. This pattern was evident during the 2021 and 2024 bull markets, where retail investors distributed BTC as prices surged. Currently, these holders remain neutral, with a slight inclination toward accumulation.

image 43 7
Bitcoin Faces Volatility as Whale Holdings Drop to 2019 Lows, While Sharks Accumulate 12

Will BTC Hold Above $81.5K?

According to Coin Signals, Bitcoin has revisited the critical $85K–$86K support zone. This level aligns with the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a key trendline support, making it a crucial area to watch.

Additionally, the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) sits around $81.5K, which coincides with a previous SBR (Support-Becomes-Resistance) FOMO correction low. If BTC maintains support above these levels, a potential bounce could be on the horizon. However, a breakdown below could signal prolonged consolidation or further downside.

image 43 4
Bitcoin Faces Volatility as Whale Holdings Drop to 2019 Lows, While Sharks Accumulate 13

As market dynamics continue to shift, all eyes remain on Bitcoin’s ability to defend these critical levels. With whales reducing their holdings and mid-sized investors accumulating, the next major move could be driven by institutional sentiment and broader macroeconomic factors.

Related Reading | SEC May Drop Ripple Appeal, Awaiting Leadership Shift for Judgment Decision

Trump Just Made a Huge Bitcoin Move: Why Isn’t BTC Skyrocketing?

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  • Trump’s Bitcoin reserve plan sparks debate, but prices remain stagnant amid market uncertainty.
  • The U.S. now holds 200,000 Bitcoin, pressuring other nations to follow its lead.
  • Rumors of zero capital gains tax on Bitcoin could turn the U.S. into a crypto investment hub.

Donald Trump has signed an executive order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve and a digital asset stockpile. This decision has caused much debate as it affects the crypto space. This leaves many investors and analysts wondering what it all means for the growth of Bitcoin and why the prices have not risen more.  

According to the executive order, Bitcoin is split into two categories. The strategic Bitcoin reserve will help the U.S Treasury to have a tax legislation plan on how it can obtain BTC. On the other hand, the national digital asset stockpile will be used for storing BTC and other digital assets found in criminal and civil cases. The government will refrain from purchasing new BTC for the purpose of building up the stock; it will only possess the stock that it has acquired from the owners.  

Currently, the United States alone possesses over 200,000 BTC, which ranks this nation among the largest BTC owners. This could act as a factor that compels other counties to follow this decision. If the U.S. decides to hold Bitcoin stocks, other countries such as China may also feel pressured to do the same.  

Bitcoin as Digital Gold

Under the new policy, however, the White House compared Bitcoins to digital gold. This strategy gives officials advantage of being the first country to build a Bitcoin reserve. Crypto-friendly Senator Cynthia Lummis also referred to the action as the start. She also said that there could be more announcements at a later date in the next several months.  

However, the price of BTC has not gone up to 200,000 and above as the news might have people believe. This kind of policy change was expected to boost the price after the value crossed such an important figure. Nevertheless, there is still some doubt regarding timing and in what form the United States will start acquiring BTC . 

Another reason that may have an impact on Bitcoin price is rumors that it is not to be taxed on capital gains on Bitcoin. Before Crypto White House Summit, it is expected that Trump will sign more executive orders. The United States could become a hotspot for crypto investment if he rescinds the capital gains tax. This can lead to a great disturbance in the flow of the market and its interaction with the companies involved.  

Bitcoin’s Market Consolidation

Currently the price action itself has fallen into a consolidation channel. On the four-hour time frame, a symmetrical triangle forming for the BTC price. This level’s breach defined the further direction of the main trend in most cases, and this situation seems to remain the same. Past experiences suggest the same occurrence results in more gains when the bulls are dominant in the market.  

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Source: TradingView

In the 24-hour charts, BTC is seen to be trading above essential support levels. Hence, buyers have intervened at the lower end of price range in order to check further erosion. If this consolidation persists and prolongs, then the bounce back can be much stronger at some point in time. Pundits say that BTC may reach new record highs should the coin climb above the levels of resistance.  

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Source: TradingView

El Salvador was the first country to make use of BTC legal tender, and now, it is the U.S turn as well. If more countries are obtaining it, demand will increase, which might lead to the occurrence of a supply shock, and hence higher prices.