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Bitcoin 2020

Did Bitcoin’s Current Bearish Rally Began During “Positive Q2 2020”?

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The second quarter of 2020 has been extremely tumultuous. Bitcoin  and the rest of the crypto market initially put their right foot on the gas and the market exploded. According to data provided by Binance Research, BTC USD was up by 42% in Q2 2020, making it one of the best quarters in recent coin history.

 

bitcoin 2020

Other altcoins were also able to take advantage of the rally, with the likes of Ethereum, Bitcoin , and Litecoin sustaining significant gains. Correlations between the various crypto assets had also remained high in the charts, but slightly lower compared to Q1. The 90-day rolling correlation between the S&P 500 and the BTC was positive. But its influence decreased dramatically after mid-June.

Despite major positive moves by BTC USD, Binance’s report noted that it was crucial to note that almost all of BTC USD’s gains came in the first 45 days of the quarter. Referring to it as a “Kangaroo market,” the market environment was divided between the period when prices were going up and the period when prices were falling.

Now, although many supporters have liked to believe that current market stagnation and decline is due to recent market inactivity, the above data may suggest that Q2 2020 was not entirely positive.

Did Bitcoin ‘s current bearish picture start after mid-May?

Let us have some of the facts right. BTC USD’s last high occurred at the end of May when Bitcoin reached $10,250. From here on, the asset’s inability to breach $10,000 was rightly questioned, but the reason is that Bitcoin cash was halved on 11 May. Casual viewers hoped for a bullish rally right after the halving, but it has historically been identified that the BTC usually follows a prolonged correction for the first 6 months after the halving.

It is therefore not inaccurate to state that Bitcoin’s 42 percent positive return in Q2 2020 was down to the hype of the pre-halving. After the halving has been completed, Bitcoin cash is now following its historic past, and the underlying bearish trail is something that was triggered in the midst of Bitcoin’s bullish Q2 period.

Ethereum performed better in Q2 than BTC USD

The report further added that amidst Bitcoin’s stronghold, Ethereum consistently out-marched BTC with a quarterly return of approximately 70 percent in the charts. Major factors behind ETH’s rally has been down to the growth of DeFi and the anticipation surrounding Ethereum 2.0.

Now, with the commencement of Q3 2020, it will be interesting to see the development of the crypto market over the next three months; whether the bearish grip is broken towards the end of the year or not.

Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index Drops Down to 39 as BTC Market Remains Uncertain

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Over the past 7 days, Bitcoin has faced pullbacks on a few occasions. On June 11, a 7.06 percent depreciation brought down its valuation from $9777 to $9088, but the asset was able to bounce back above $9333.

On a similar note, 24-hours back Bitcoin dipped 4.74 percent to a breach below the $9000 range, but once again, BTC was able to move back over immediate resistance at $9333.

With such turbulence, major on-chain metrics for Bitcoin were undergoing transitional differences.

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According to Arcane ‘s recent weekly update, Bitcoin’s 7-day average trading volume shrugged off its bullish hopes of the past week as trading volume dipped below the 2020 average. A small spike was observed, but the high volume was in-correlation to the price-drop, suggesting that the trading volume was largely based on a strong-sell.

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Surprisingly, Bitcoin’s 7-day volatility has not really increased since the beginning of June, despite recent turbulence. Although data from yesterday’s pullback has not yet been accounted, 7-day volatility has dropped to its lowest level in the last week of 2020. The chart above suggested that Bitcoin’s 30-day volatility rate was more volatile over the short term. However, these data may be subject to change following yesterday’s subsequent pull-back and surge.

Bullish Bitcoin optimism is facing another phase of uncertainty?

It’s no secret that the price movement of Bitcoin has been rather turbulent and uncertain since Bitcoin completed its 3rd halving. The asset struggled to breach the $10,000 psychological resistance, and its repeated bouts of key resistance are damaging to its trend sentiment.

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According to Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed Index, Bitcoin was back in the “Fear” zone at the time of writing, as the index dropped below 39 in the charts. The Fear and Greed Index hasn’t been this low since late April.

Considering, the Bitcoin market is very unstable at the moment, the index might rise back up over the next few days is the asset is able to sustain a rally above $9700 again.

At press time, Bitcoin is on the rise as we speak, breaching above the resistance mark of $9518 on 16th June 3:30 UTC. Bitcoin is valued at $9539 at the moment.

Bitcoin Still Alive 10 Years After it was First Pronounced Dead

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Bitcoin is still alive and growing stronger as it swaggers toward its third block rewards a halving event. However, the pioneering website that first spreads the rumours of bitcoin’s death, unlike the flagship digital currency, is unfortunately rotting.

Bitcoin, the most popular and most capped digital currency on the market, continues to prove its doubters wrong as it surges past $10,000. The digital currency is growing even stronger to prove that its bad talkers were false; they went so far as to declare it dead ten years ago.

Bitcoin still alive a decade later

Bitcoin was launched by an anonymous Satoshi Nakamoto back in 2008. Following the introduction of the first digital currency, an untold number of entities emerged claiming that bitcoin was dead, worthless, and a ponzi scheme.

Unfortunately, for all the defeatists, bitcoin is breathing, and even more lively than ever before, as its halving approaches. As per the BTC Obituary page, the flagship digital currency has been declared dead for a total of 380 times since its introduction.

The initial date when Bitcoin was falsely announced dead was December 15, 2010, while only $0.23 was traded by the late Underground Economist; who published an article titled “Why Bitcoin Can’t Be a Currency.” Thanks to Wayback Machine, a copy of the article on the deceased website still exists.

Bitcoin’s third halving to take place next week

The highly-rated digital currency currently holds around $9,600, rising by about 10% over the last seven days. Bitcoin’s total market cap is $176 billion. The third halving event of the digital currency is scheduled to happen in the coming week.

Block rewards halving within the Bitcoin Network will reduce the supply of fresh BTC tokens by half. At present, the remuneration per mined block is 12.5 BTC. However, this figure will drop to 6.25 BTC after the halving event.

“Digital Gold” Outshines Real Gold as Key Halving Approaches

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Ahead of the key bitcoin halving event, the so-called “Digital Gold” outshines real gold in performance. The popular digital currency has seen huge gains in the last few weeks as the block rewards halving event approaches. Currently the real gold is being restrained by insufficient supply.

Bitcoin is often seen as a digital version of gold because of its scarce supply and its admiration as a store of value. In addition to the main differences, there is another significant distinction between real gold and bitcoin: “digital gold” outshines real gold with the recent BTC price explosion. The price of gold has yet to explode.

“Digital Gold” surges 12% in seven days

As next week’s key bitcoin halving approaches, the price of bitcoin has surged by nearly 12% over the past seven days. BTC price revolved around $10,000 several times over the last two days before dropping to its present price at $9,600.

On the other hand, the price of gold also grew over the week, although not as the so-called “digital gold.” As per the Business Insider, the percentage growth was just a little over 1%, moving from $1,700 to $1,718 per ounce.

Moreover, the sheer distinction is even more crisp when looking back over the past one month. The growth in the price of gold has been gentle but steady. Gold amassed a little over 4% returns over the past one month. On the other hand, bitcoin rallied by a mammoth 34% within the same time-frame.

Both assets were affected by COVID-19 mid-March crash

During the March 12, both the “digital gold” and real gold were affected massively by the coronavirus-driven market collapse. Nevertheless, the price of real gold was not heavily affected compared to the massive dip in BTC price.; which was virtually slashed in half.

Currently, the two prized assets have recovered to their market valuation s before the mid-March crash. However, the elevated swing means that anybody who purchased the asset during the March dip, would have made 100% returns by now.

Institutional Involvement in Bitcoin may have been more than expected in 2020

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It has been one of those weeks in the digital asset industry where Bitcoin’s price hasn’t been able to sustain consolidation at any price range. Since March 12th, Bitcoin has registered valuations of $7900, which then dropped to $4770, came back up to 5900 again and then $3800 become the new low of 2020.Such transitions were causing massive changes to Bitcoin fundamentals and its volatility index was one of them.

According to Kraken’s recent Volatility Report, February has been one of the most turbulent months in the past six months, with BTC rising to $10,500 at one time. The bearish downturn began after February 14th, when Bitcoin depreciated about 21 percent from its high, all the way below $9,000.

But the worst was yet to come. After the initial bullish rally in March, Bitcoin succumbed to the traditional market crash pressure and, along with other major stocks such as DJI and S7P 500, Bitcoin had its worst dip in the last seven years.

Bitcoin and S&P 500 correlation started earlier than March

Surprisingly, according to the report, Bitcoin’s network usage has escalated over the past few days since the collapse, bitcoin’s annualized volatility was up by almost 10 percent to 13.3 times since the start of 2020.

However, the major point highlighted in the report was Bitcoin’s correlation with the S&P 500.

Bitcoin’s safe-haven characteristic has taken a massive turn in the past few days as the supposedly’ uncorrelated’ asset continued to follow the line of traditional stocks on its way down. Bitcoin and S&P 500 have registered their highest correlations over the years, but according to the report, they have begun to spike towards the end of January.

The report stated,

“Bitcoin was notably more strongly positively correlated with traditional risk assets and more negatively correlated with traditional safe-haven assets; bitcoin’s 1-month correlation with the S&P500 went from 0.28 to 0.83 and from 0.70 to -0.37 with respect to gold.”

The above scenario highlights another crucial factor which can be the fact that Bitcoin had a higher correlation with traditional stocks due to institutional involvement. The community may have overlooked the presence of institutions in Bitcoin and these entities may have held more Bitcoin than expected by the space.

Such an arrangement logically explains the collective collapse of Bitcoin and traditional stocks and Bitcoin’s decoupling from gold, which is suppose to adhere to the same characteristics as Bitcoin.

 Bitcoin Implied Volatility reaches new high

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Speaking about the present volatility of Bitcoin, the largest digital asset continued to embroil a state of severe turbulence as its implied volatility recorded a new high over the past year.

Implied Volatility largely explains the expected volatility in the market with respect to past performance and at the moment, the VIX( Volatility Index) was above 80 since March 17th.

Although a positive scenario could surface for Bitcoin, considering higher volatility meant a bullish price swing may allow it to scale higher again, the bearish outlook of the market continued to cast a shadow over Bitcoin which remained significant at press time.

 

Bitcoin Performance During Past Fed Rate Cuts Hints “it is not a safe haven asset”

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Back In 2019, The Federal Reserve Board (FED) cut the interest rate thrice in order to achieve greater economic growth. The lower financial cost can lead to an increase in the purchasing and borrowing power of the individuals. However, it can also lead to inflation and reduced purchasing power after a time-lapse.

On one side, we can see that the last 3 FED’s rate cuts have not shown any considerable fluctuation in the price of Bitcoins. And on the other side, analysts have been predicting that FED’s rate cut had just shown positive results for the assets like gold. As a result, many researchers have started claiming Bitcoin as an unsafe asset.

However, the market’s volatility has resulted in a new perception that there might be a bounce-back in the Bitcoin rates if FED decides to cut the interest rates again. In contrast, there are a few analysts who have unparalleled opinions. They believe that FED’s additional rate cut won’t end up in any cheer in the Bitcoin’s price. It will remain as steady as it prevailed in 2019.

In the previous 2-3 months, we have seen a lot of fluctuations in the market resulting in the display of its volatile nature. The US’s attack on Iranian general being one of the reasons behind the market’s unreliable changes. Additionally, Coronavirus has played a disastrous role in the market’s major setback.

Moreover, it’s worth noting that the bitcoin is currently trading at $8,739.56, surging by 1.50 percent within the past 24Hrs. With the dominance of 63.9%, Bitcoin is holding the market capitalization of $159,477,995,785.

While bitcoin bull like Michael Novogratz sees Bitcoin as digital gold, Jerome Powell, the 16th Chairperson of the Federal Reserve calls it as a speculative store of value.

Latest Budget Proposal By Trump May Allow The US Treasury Greater Oversight Over Crypto

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The cryptocurrency sector is ever-growing in popularity and is attracting attention from all over the world. However, there is still a significant lack of oversight of this sector in the United States. Nevertheless, this situation may be changed in the near days; principally if President Donald Trump’s latest budget proposal for the fiscal year 2021 goes all the way through.

Moreover, if the proposal manages to go through, as per some estimates the US Department of the Treasury may receive further supervision powers over the cryptocurrency sector. The new budget released on Monday constitutes $4.8 trillion and looks to move the Secret Service back to the Treasury to battle out cryptocurrency-related crimes; such as financing terrorism and money laundry.

The Secret Service to Combat Financial Crimes

In fact, the Secret Service was established back in 1865 within the Treasury to provide protection to Presidents and counter counterfeiting of currencies. However, it was transferred to the Department of Homeland Security back in 2003. The budget proposal details the new plan of action to reinforce the Treasury Department’s oversight on digital currency control. The proposal reads:

“Technological advancements in recent decades, such as cryptocurrencies and the increasing interconnectedness of the international financial marketplace, have resulted in more complex criminal organizations and revealed stronger links between financial and electronic crimes and the financing of terrorists and rogue state actors. The Budget proposes legislation to return the U.S. Secret Service to the Treasury to create new efficiencies in the investigation of these crimes and prepare the Nation to face the threats of tomorrow.”

 

In addition, this reshuffle means that Donald Trump is aiming to return the Secret Service to its original roots. He claims that tech advancements over the past decades; particularly digital currencies, on top of its interconnection between the international financial marketplace; has led to the rise of even more complex crime groups. Due to this reason, U.S. President Donald J. Trump believes it is best if the Secret Service returns to the Treasury; and fulfills its original purpose which is combating financial crimes. The document elaborates:

“These resources would enhance FinCEN’s protection of data collected under the Bank Secrecy Act, which would increase its value to law enforcement agencies, and expand its efforts to combat emerging virtual currency and cybercrime threats.”

Moving forward, most individuals doubt the proposal will go past congress. However, others highlight that it shows the priorities of the Trump administration. According to the Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin; the budget prioritizes maintaining the part that the Treasury plays towards building a strong economy in the United States. Mnuchin went on to add that this will go on to ensure financial stability not only in the U.S but also abroad.  It would also improve national security and the management of the taxpayers’ resources.

Bad Actors Misusing Digital Currencies

Furthermore, the Treasury secretary noted that the main reason for concern is the bad players who are always intending to misuse cryptocurrencies. He claimed that this is among the biggest threats to national security. The secretary believes that there is a great need for “very, very strong regulations” to guarantee that digital currencies are not as incognito as Swiss bank accounts.

 

Bitcoin’s Price Action Before The 2020 Halving

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These initial days of 2020’s Q1 represent a winning streak for Bitcoin. Up from the horror of an annual 2019 low of $6,000, the coin is experiencing worthwhile surges. At a glance, Bitcoin’s turn of events in 2019 was easily predictable throughout the year. 

However, the largest coin’s price action by the end of last year caught the entire market pants down. While data from Skew indicated a 6% probability of Bitcoin attaining its all-time high; a close surge crashed after attaining $14,000. This shattered the likelihood of the coin reaching $20,000. 

Nevertheless, the market is anticipating a nice return above the $10, 000 support. The Bitcoin halving could serve a rather significant upward pull in the coming 100 days. Let’s see what to expect. 

Meanwhile, the past 14 days have seen Bitcoin record a 20 percent gain. Seemingly approaching the $10,000 price mark gradually during press time.

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A twitter crypto analyst @Lightcrypto is expecting Bitcoin to break the $10,000. He shared his positive anticipation on his Twitter profile: 

In my mind, the odds of breaking $10,000 in the next two days is over 80%.”

Light noted that Bitcoin is ready for its pre-halving upswing. In fact, he said, “Bitcoin is already past its psychological litmus test.” The crypto trader and analyst pointed out it was quite impossible for traders to have held onto their positions this long.

Only to end up dumping their coins before a surge. His bullish prediction had that Bitcoin would surge to $11,000, shortly after the coin attained $10,000. 

“If and when we break the $10,000, we teleport to probably $11,000 in an hour.”

Flib Flib, a recognized cryptocurrency analyst and researcher made a chart estimation of Bitcoin experiencing a vertical surge towards the $9,000. Bottom at $6,000 by December and recover to $9,000 by January this year. He is famous for making an accurate forecast of $3,000 during the 2018 bear market.

Flib Flib wrote in a Decentrader newsletter that he believes  Bitcoin is going to surge to $15,800 before the halving event. He backed the forecast by taking note of the previous halving, Bitcoin found a temporary top at $800, the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the upward correction prior to the even

Flib mentioned that his volume indicators were well positioned and the moving averages were trending pretty well. The approximately $16,000 goal depends on historical trends. In addition to a confluence of several technical analysis indicating further upsides in the short term. Flib Flib also stated that his major indicators include the one month, four-hour and one-day candles. He suggested in the post the price of Bitcoin was meant for higher gains in the next few weeks. 

 

Mining Sector Takes Desperate Measures to Save Face as Bitcoin Mining Continues its Climb

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Mining companies across the world have had difficulties in maintaining profits because of low demands as well as regulations.

These organizations have also been affected by sentiment changes in the overall working structure as well as a mission to go green.

New reports showed that investors were now shifting from heavy industries to clean energy sectors, creating massive losses in the aforementioned areas.

The monetary shift has resulted in mining companies losing billions in the financing, increasing the cost of capital and derailing several intended projects. Africa has been a hotbed for mining operations and several of the companies involved in the space are planning to pivot into the clean energy sector.

The switch to clean energy is supposed to be a pivotal point of discussion in the upcoming Investing in African Mining Indaba Conference in Cape Town. The conference is expected to help companies hunt for new sources of capital including privy equity, debt, offtake finance, and royalty finance.

Caroline Donally, the managing director at private equity firm Denham Capital stated:

“Even for companies that have good projects, it’s very difficult for them to raise any money in these markets. Previous investors who would provide equity appear to have withdrawn. A number of specialist funds have shut up shop, and generalists aren’t investing in commodities anymore.”

On the ground, research has shown that cryptocurrencies and cannabis stocks are responsible for luring investors away from the mining sector. Compared to earlier fundraises, the mining industry has seen a massive dip in terms of investments. The sector could only raise $0.3 billion in 2019, a far cry from $1.5 billion raised in 2009.

While mainstream mining faces massive obstacles, Bitcoin mining hit an all-time high last month. Bitcoin’s hash rate rose from approximately 93 exahashes per second on December 30 to more than 106 exahashes per second. The best overall gain was on New Year’s day when the hash power crossed the 119 exahashes per second mark.

After the bear dip in 2018, many miners had shut shop. The fortunes were reversed last year when there was a greater influx into the industry. Research showed that more than half a million new application-specific integrated circuit rigs came online in Q3 2019.

Digital Renminbi Coins, Digital Dollar and the Race to Central Bank Backed Stablecoins

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Top global central banks are scrambling to launch their state-backed digital currencies. China set the pace with its digital renminbi coins with hopes of gaining a competitive advantage against the US in world trade.

Besides central banks and tech companies joining the stable coins front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) believes that cryptocurrencies backed by fiat could reduce over-reliance on government issued money.

Additionally, the IMF highlighted that CBDCs would help to clear and settle transactions without the need for intermediaries. 

Well, cryptocurrencies have effectively slashed the duration for cross-border transactions from days to even seconds. An apparent benefit while compared to the limitations of fiat currency. 

Bitcoin was the first digital currency to emerge back in 2009. By the end of 2019, at least 1,600 digital currency surfaced. Data from Coinmarket cap released statistics indicating at least 3,000 alternative coins by 2020. 

While the past decade could trick you into thinking that digital currency is just a concept of present millennials; 

Note that the concept of cryptocurrency dates all the way back to 1983, when David Chaum conceived the first electronic cash machine called the eCash. 1998 followed with headlines of Nick Szabo‘s attempt at Bit Gold. 

However, neither of these two projects turned out successful.

Mobile Payment and Digital Currencies

The lesser-known story of a  mobile operator’s attempt at digital payment in Kenya set out the narrative for digital currency.

M-pesa is now the leading mobile payment system in the world serving more than 37 million subscribers. Then comes Satoshi Nakamoto’s January 2009 paper publication of the functionality of a possible Bitcoin Blockchain Network. 

A paper that was followed by the remarkable execution of the first mining Block. Popularly known as the Genesis Block. By 2010, the first purchase of products using bitcoins was recorded.

Since, thousands of digital currencies have come into existence. 

Bitcoin and other cryptos have challenged central banks and governments to change their monetary mindset. China’s fear of an imminent end to its economic supremacy. As well as having a reserve largely consisting of US dollars, gave rise to the idea of central backed digital currency in China. 

Digital Dollar Foundation

In fact, the chinese central bank is currently in the final stages of launching its digital renminbi coins. China’s digital coin could easily oustet the US Dollar as the de  facto currency for global trade. However, the United States has joined the frenzy with former CFTC chairman outlining the idea of a Digital Dollar. 

The Ex Commodities and Futures Trading Commission Christopher Giancarlo formed the Digital Dollar Foundation. An organization that will design and push for the adoption of a US central bank backed digital currency. 

Unfortunately, the United States is showing up for the occasion late. 

The Bank of England was among the first Central Banks to hold discussions on the prospect of a central bank stablecoin. Moreover, the Central Bank of Sweden rolled out implementation plans for state -sponsored digital currency dubbed e-krona.

In the course of last year,  ex Bank of Spain Governor Miguel Fernandez Ordonez proposed the introduction of digital euro. 

So far, China’s digital renminbi coins are winning in the CBDC front. On the other hand, the two largest central banks in the world: the European Central Bank and the Federal Reserve have failed to precipitate considerable plans for a CBDC. 

It is this laxity of the Federal Reserve that prompted  Giancarlo to pioneer the Digital Dollar Foundation. 

Benefits of the Central Backed Digital Coins

Some stablecoins such as the Renminbi coins could gain more popularity than others. Nevertheless, the rise of this digital backed stablecoins have several benefits. 

  • The issuance of digital cryptographically encrypted assets would prevent the chances of currency counterfeiting. 
  • A CDBC would facilitate tracing of every transaction that takes place on the blockchain.  
  • Prevention of money laundering activities, revenue tracking, and tax collection.
  • Facilitate accurate assessment of government agencies, value chains and sectors. 
  • This information will also enable governments to efficiently utilize their taxes.  

Given the efficiencies of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, dozens of technology firms, Universities, central banks and scholars are working round the clock to replace conventional clearing settlements associated with traditional banking.

Large scale adoption of cryptocurrencies in the future for dozens of revenue models cutting across several industries.

A digital reserve inclusive of CBDCs such as the Renminbi coins, digital dollars, and other stablecoins is the winning trend for decentralization, financial transparency and trade efficiency.