Key Takeaways
- DOGE reaches a critical support level, echoing past rallies.
- Historical cycles suggest a peak in April or October.
- Daily RSI is at its lowest since March 2023, hinting at a reversal.
Dogecoin (DOGE) has reached a crucial trend line that has consistently provided support over the past year. This very level served as the launchpad for its last major rally, which began precisely one year ago, on February 25-26, 2024. Traders are now watching closely, anticipating a potential rebound.
Adding to the bullish case, DOGE’s Daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plunged to its lowest level since March 2023. In technical terms, such oversold conditions often signal a market reversal. The combination of key support and RSI positioning suggests that Dogecoin could be setting up for a significant move.
Meanwhile, memecoins have continued to gain traction, with increasing institutional recognition. DOGE, as the original memecoin, remains at the forefront of this trend. With volatility expected, traders are assessing whether this support level will once again ignite another rally.
Historical Cycles and Bitcoin’s Halving Impact
Dogecoin has traditionally adhered to Bitcoin halving cycles and past patterns demonstrate that price tops typically occur within predetermined timelines. Last cycle, DOGE hit ATH exactly 362 days after Bitcoin halved on 8 May 2021. Adhering to the similar cycle this time, the top date of this cycle will be 16 April 2025, 50 days away.
To illustrate this timeline, a red square labeled with “50” has been added to the charts representing the days remaining until this benchmark. The same square has been added beside the previous cycle for comparison and highlights the similarity. This has been interpreted by some traders that DOGE will top at a price of $1.4 if it goes the same route.
There’s a different scenario, however. If Dogecoin follows the 2017-2018 cycle, the ATH will be 546 days after halving and will fall in the middle of October 2025. This longer cycle might drive the price of DOGE to a whopping $2.3. Both possibilities are still feasible, and the future will be known within the next few weeks based on how the market behaves.
Dogecoin’s Future: April vs. October?
With Dogecoin sitting at a critical support line, investors are at odds regarding the direction it will take next. While some call for a sudden push higher toward an April top, there are those that say a prolonged cycle of bulls will yield higher returns by October.
Four years ago, the crypto scene looked completely different. There was no Bitcoin exchange-traded fund and the mainstream appeal of DOGE was a lot lower compared to how it stands presently. Today, with the influence of the meme coins in the market, DOGE receives unparalleled attention.
Sentiment will be the force during this 50-day period of significance. Will DOGE mimic the previous cycle and top in April, or will it extend through October with a higher price target? The upcoming weeks will answer the question.
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