As the Federal Reserve gears up for possible changes in monetary policy, the cryptocurrency world, especially Bitcoin (BTC), stands on alert. Investors and traders are bracing for the Federal Reserve’s decisions, which could have a profound impact on BTC’s price trajectory.
For the last six months, market sentiment has been tepid, with Bitcoin hovering around a neutral zone. However, analysts believe that Q4 2023 and beyond may see BTC make big moves, directly tied to the Fed’s actions.
Dennis Liu, a respected analyst and popular YouTuber, shared his insights in a recent Altcoin Daily interview. According to Liu, Bitcoin’s current price dip is not a reason for concern but an opportunity. He pointed out similarities between today’s market and the early 2023 rally. Liu argued that BTC’s price tends to follow cycles, often mirroring global monetary trends.
In the past, Bitcoin surged during expansions in the global money supply (M2). This pattern appeared in both the 2017 and 2021 bull runs. Liu believes that a similar cycle could emerge soon, particularly with institutional support, thanks to the anticipated launch of BTC ETFs.
Bitcoin’s Macroeconomic Factors
A key driver of Bitcoin’s future lies in the Federal Reserve’s monetary decisions. If interest rate cuts happen as predicted in the next few meetings, the U.S. economy could stabilize, offering a favorable environment for risk assets like BTC. Historically, BTC’s price has shown a strong correlation with traditional markets like the S&P 500. After past rate cuts, the S&P 500 usually took three to six months to recover, a timeline that could sync with Bitcoin’s next major move.
Liu expects that, under favorable conditions, Bitcoin could reach $100,000 by 2024 and even touch $200,000 by late 2025. This scenario hinges on BTC’s market cap growing to $4-5 trillion.
Not everyone shares this bullish view. Economist Peter Schiff, a long-time critic of Bitcoin, warns that the asset could be headed for a steep drop. Citing a triple-top formation on BTC’s chart, he predicts a fall to around $42,000 in the short term. Schiff also remains firm in his belief that gold, not BTC, is the true store of value.
While opinions vary, all eyes remain on the Federal Reserve. Its next moves could either spark BTC’s rise or deepen its decline.