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Utkarsh Gupta

XRP spikes 4.22% after Ripple buy-in; Sentiment over Activity?

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There is now an air of unpredictability surrounding XRP. Bitcoin is currently consolidating above $15,000, and other altcoins such as Ethereum and LINK have been steadily rising higher and higher in charts. It wasn’t exactly the same for the fourth-largest asset, which was still trailing behind its 2019 highs, let alone registering a new ATH since 2017.

XRP vs Bitcoin: A weekly chart edition

Bitcoin XRP

While Bitcoin’s value has exhibited periods of significant growth over the past couple of years, XRP has hardly witnessed a massive rise. Its high of $0.45 in June 2019 is still, its recent all-time high. While it does not say much about the token other than extreme sideways consolidation, its market reacted fervently due to an extrinsic factor.

According to Ripple’s Q3 insight report, Ripple purchased over $46 million worth of XRP in Q3 2020. In comparison, Ripple had invested zero dollars in the previous quarter. The report suggested that the massive buy-in was conducted to create a ‘healthy market’, indirectly inferring that the organization wanted to create interest for the token, and improve its price. However, here is an interesting hook in the development.

XRP

While the Q3 Insights report was released on 5th November, there wasn’t any coverage of Ripple buying over $46 million in XRP in Q3. It was covered today by another medium and just an hour later, the asset exhibited a rapid spike of 4.22%. A coincidence can be painted with respect to the surge but it has happened in the past as well.

It begs the question of whether the token can sustain growth on the basis of organic adoption, just like Bitcoin and Ethereum, or does it require the external influence of Ripple to keep it afloat in the top-10 digital asset rankings.

XRP volumes exhibited a 105% increase in Q3

This is where the speculation needle takes a vital turn. While the 4th largest crypto continues to attain long-term sideways oscillation, its daily volumes continued to suggest user involvement.

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The above chart indicates the processing time of a transaction on XRP with respect to Bitcoin, Ethereum was XRP continues to outperform the top two cryptos. XRP’s functionality as bridge currency continues to demonstrate higher utility and convenience and in spite of limited price growth, it allows traders to capture time-limited arbitrage opportunities by capitalizing on XRP’s speed and low transaction costs.

Such organic activity should have an impact on its valuation however, market sentiment continues to be the primary trigger. Only time will tell whether the asset will improve on its credibility or get washed-out by other rising assets.

Ethereum, Chainlink, Bitcoin Cash Technical Analysis on 27th September 2020

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As we near the end of Q3 2020, market volatility remains at its peak with major altcoins exhibiting extreme sideways movement over the past month. While the last 24-hours were rather timid, price action has been active all week, with several coins picturing positive moves on their short-term chart. We analyzed the markets of Ethereum, Chainlink, and Bitcoin Cash to attain more clarity on what the short-term future holds.

Ethereum hourly chart

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For Ethereum, the past 48-hours or so has been positive with the price slowing rising within the trendlines of an ascending channel. At press time Ethereum was valued at $351 and over the course of August and September, ETH has traded the most between $350-$360, strengthening this particular range as a bottom. With a market cap of $39 billion, Ethereum maintained its comfortable 2nd spot in the rankings, and the altcoin represented a trading volume of $9 billion over the past day.

Market Indicators remained neutral at the moment but hinting towards a reversal. Awesome Oscillator suggested that the bearish momentum is all but dismissed in the charts but Chaikin Money Flow indicated that outflows continued to dominate inflows in Ethereum’s market.

Chainlink hourly chart

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Chainlink has fallen a little from grace over the course of September, sliding down to 7th in the rankings. While the altcoin was valued over $10 at the moment, its market cap held a valuation under $4 billion, at $3.59 billion. The last day witnessed at an uptick of 3.77% which was backed by a high trading volume of $1.08 billion.

However, when you talk about chaotic market movement, Chainlink is a prime example and it is largely due to the fact that the asset has not traded in this price range before the last couple of months. At the moment, its valuation is exhibiting a symmetrical triangle, which is a clear sign of uncertainty as the price may go up or down.

The Bollinger Bands were observed to be parallel which suggested a reduction in market volatility but the Relative Strength Index or RSI suggested improving buying pressure. The asset will possibly re-test $11.5 if a bullish breakout takes place.

Bitcoin Cash hourly chart

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Lastly, Bitcoin Cash managed to reclaim a position in the top 5 cryptocurrencies. The past 24-hours were a little turbulent with the price rising by 4% at first then dropping by 2.5% around 6 hours later. The volatility was observed in the market indicators as well.

While MACD suggested a bearish trend with the signal line hovering over the blue line, Stochastic RSI suggested that BCH is going to overturn the current trend and undergo a bullish period.

With an average trading volume of $662 million, Bitcoin Cash had a market capitalization of 4.05 billion, while being valued under $220 at press time.

3 Reasons Why Bitcoin’s Market Shift is Pulling the Price Above $12,000

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When Bitcoin surrendered its higher price position at the start of September, many expected a drastic fall in price after the asset had built up its stature in August. Now that the industry is nearing the end of September, rather than consolidating a value below $10,000, BTC seems to be comfortably above it.

The last two weeks seemed the most critical as Bitcoin retested support at $9800 a couple of times, but now, market sentiment alongside major technical indicators suggested that the asset was in line to pull ahead towards $12,000.

An incoming reversal on the weekly chart?

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The weekly chart of Bitcoin attested the rigid recovery from $98,00 over the past few weeks. After the first major weekly drop in September, the asset steadied itself but now, the Stochastic RSI is suggestive that Bitcoin is ready to under another bullish reversal in the weekly time frame.

As identified in the chart, the blue line is currently at an over-sold section, right under the signal line. While the crossover has taken place yet, the price movement upwards would possibly take shape when the blue line has completed its turnover with the signal line.

Bitcoin Whales are accumulating higher

Notoriously known for exhibiting high-volume sell-offs during a bearish period, the BTC whales have reacted the opposite way this term.

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According to data from Whalemap, a lot of accumulation has taken place from the Whale’s side in September and the larget bubble in the chart above represents the largest stockpile.

Breaking down the numbers, close to 150,000 BTC worth between $10,400 and $10,700 was collected between 25th September and now. The price has been reactive to such collection, indicating a minor uptick.

Bitcoin Market Fundamentals show no sign of weakness

Hash ribbon indicator on top of BTC price chart

According to a popular trader “Byzantine General”, the hash ribbon indicator has indicated two consecutive buy signals in the last one week. He said,

“These signals happen during the first recovery after miner capitulation. The bitcoin production cost is currently green. Simply put, this means that miners are potentially taking losses. Maybe it’s not very intuitive, but historically speaking these are amazing buy opportunities.”

Now, the only argument left to discuss was whether Bitcoin can fend off another short-term sell-off. The 1-hour chart of BTC currently looks over-bought and there were signs that a drop down to $10,400 as possible. In spite of these short-term concerns, the long-term narrative still seems largely positive as September’s speed bumps did not off-tracked Bitcoin’s bull rally.

Stablecoins Become First Crypto to Receive Regulatory Green Light from SEC, OCC

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A monumental turn of events took place on Monday for the digital asset space, as Stablecoins became the first cryptocurrencies to received guidelines from the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency(OCC).

According to the official press release, a list of national guidelines were revealed on how fiat-backed cryptos can be treated under the law. Before the current announcement, there had been zero regulation clarity behind the functionality of stablecoins such as Tether and Circle’s USDC.

The press release stated,

“This letter addresses the authority of a national bank to hold deposits that serve as reserves for certain “stablecoins.” stablecoin issuers may desire to place assets in a reserve account with a national bank to provide assurance that the issuer has sufficient assets backing the stablecoin in situations where there is a hosted wallet.”

In addition, it was added that the bank offering services to hold stablecoins on behalf of crypto projects will need to comply with appropriate controls to ensure due diligence on the risks involved while maintaining an understanding with the stablecoin issuer. The banks should facilitate a proper understanding of th risks and issue a review for compliance under applicable laws and regulations, also with regards to the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and anti-money laundering.

From an adoption perspective, it is a huge deal as the OCC currently wanted the regulated banks to feel comfortable in providing services to stablecoin issuers.

Brian Brooks, Acting Comptroller of the Currency stated,

“National banks and federal savings associations currently engage in stablecoin related activities involving billions of dollars each day. This opinion provides greater regulatory certainty for banks within the federal banking system to provide those client services in a safe and sound manner.”

With respect to the SEC, the commission indicated that they did not consider certain stablecoins as securities under the federal law but advised issuers to work with the organization to avoid any misunderstanding.

Will more crypto-assets receive regulations now?

To be fair, not in the near future. It is important to note that stablecoins are the least volatile asset in the space, that are ear-marked 1:1 with fiat currency. The only reason the OCC and SEC have allowed stable assets to work under federal law is its association with the U.S dollar. However, it is definitely a start and over time, the paradigm might shift towards regulating more digital currencies in the space.

China Needs to be First in the CBDC Race: People’s Bank of China

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While the development of a state-back digital currency is taking place in multiple countries across the world, China has made it clear that it is looking to dominate the sector before anyone else.

According to a recent report by Reuters, the People’s Bank of China is emphasizing on the importance of being the first-mover in the centrally-back digital currency race, as it would push towards the internationalization of the yuan. Published as a commentary on a PBOC controlled magazine, it was indicated that a digital yuan would reduce the dependency on the global dollar payment system. Additionally, the magazine indicated the creation of a ‘new battlefield’ between sovereign countries to issue and control a digital currency.

The article read,

“China has many advantages and opportunities in issuing fiat digital currencies, so it should accelerate the pace to seize the first track.”

Moreover, in the post-pandemic era, it was stated that a digital yuan would lead to improved data collection and improve monetary policies. Since the COVID-19 outbreak, the world economy has been dealing poorly and new digital payment systems will allow Yuan to break the global monopoly on the dollar.

The rise of CBDC doesn’t necessarily mean the rise of crypto-assets 

What most people will miss from the report is the fact that a digital yuan will not idolize any ethos related to a crypto-asset. The digital yuan will be backed by the People Bank of China, which cuts down the decentralized background and it has been speculated that a blockchain might not be used either.

Mu Changchun, a PBOC bank official, had recently suggested that the payment demands of China are drastically high, which existing blockchain technology of other assets might not be able to support.

While trying to attain a balance between user privacy and catching cybercriminals, Mu insisted that the PBOC would not be completely exposed to user information but user identities are likely to be tied to individual wallets.

East-Asia/China market crypto volumes to decline?

As mentioned in an earlier article, the East-Asian market incurs the highest crypto volumes of all-region. With the launch of a digital yuan, the transaction density might go down but it is too early to say. Digital Yuan is still a few months away from being public to everyone in the country and till then digital asset volumes are likely to stay high.

With time, however, Bitcoin might lose further traction in these markets as the majority was already moving towards Stablecoins and Altcoins trading. Bitcoin’s decentralized did not sit well with the Chinese government, and the development of a digital yuan is living proof that is hardly going to change in the future.

 

100,000 Bitcoins are Currently Locked on Ethereum, Should Ether be Worried?

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Ethereum’s network has single-handedly changed the blockchain scenario in 2020. Well, it might not be that single-handed(More like DeFi handed), but its utilization has been off the charts. With the explosion of DeFi, the hype surrounding the development of ETH 2.0 and the overall price turbulence, has collectively put Ethereum under everyone’s attention.

Recent data from Etherscan also suggested that the number of daily transactions on the Ethereum network surpassed its previous high on September 17th, when the total number of transactions reached 1,406,000. The previous high was clocked in January 2018, with 1,350,000 transactions.

It is fair to say that the on-going development is largely due to the fact that DeFi applications have taken over, surmounting close to 9.70 billion in Total Value Locked(USD) at press time.

However, the growth of Ethereum is currently attracting the largest digital asset on its network as well.

Bitcoin on Ethereum reaches 100,000 locked units

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According to the above chart, the total number of Bitcoin currently locked on Ethereum has reached 100,000. While many observed it as a positive, certain proponents were crossed about its long-term implication both Ether and Bitcoin.

Longhash’s Kyle Torpey suggested that from a long-term perspective, it was bad for Ether but Eric Wall opined a balanced outcome. The former lead at Cinnober stated,

“It’s both good and bad. People still become inclined to invest in ETH when they see the activity/utility on the platform going up. Most wBTC on Ethereum aren’t for ethereans forgoing ETH for BTC, it’s for people looking to chase a DeFi yield on their bitcoin holdings.”

While too much change is necessarily a good thing, the rise of non-ETH tokens on Ethereum was indirectly detrimental to Ether’s economy, here’s why.

Rise of non-Eth token reduces Ether’s monetary functionality on Ethereum

It is definitely true that Ether is the base token for Ethereum and for all gas transactions the use case of Ether is predominant. However, with time, if Ether is only used for that particular reason while not being held by investors or traders, a period of under-development will definitely stunt its value.

Michale Saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy recently clarified his decision to invest in Bitcoin because of the very fact that the community defends the network from meaningless change. Bitcoin’s rigidity to stand by its original mode of functionality is a factor of trust. Its assurance to not alter its initial ideology is something that Ethereum lacks, which is now deteriorating Ether’s value.

Innovation is a ket factor of digital assets and Ethereum has definitely taken some major steps in the right direction over the past couple of years. However, the value of Ether might face redundancy over time, if more and more non-ETH tokens receive prominence on its own parent blockchain.

Why is Bitcoin Traded the Least in China/East-Asia?

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The cryptocurrency market has become extremely diversified over the past decade. With trading activity taking place in over eight different regions of the world, the distribution in terms of transactions is pretty significant.

Amidst all the trading regions, East Asia is the world’s largest cryptocurrency trading market, as the region as accounted for about 31% of the total volumes in the past 12 months.

According to Chainalysis’ 2020 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report, East-Asian digital asset addresses have received $107 billion worth of cryptocurrencies in the past year which is a whopping 77% more than the entire North-Western Europe region. The region is also responsible for the largest mining activity, with China controlling 65% of the global hashrate.

However, just because East-Asia has the highest trading activity, did not directly mean that Bitcoin was the most popular asset here out of all the regions.

East-Asia Traders heavily focused on Altcoin and Stablecoin Trading

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The report’s data indicated that over the past year, professional traders in East-Asia have indulged quite a bit in speculative trading, which included the likes of Altcoins and Stablecoins. While accredited traders in North America traded heavily with Bitcoin(Over 77% of volume), in East-Asia only 51% of the on-chain volume was transacted under Bitcoin.

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The report added,

“Much of the remaining volume is made up of stablecoins — primarily Tether but the chart above also underscores the role altcoins play in the East Asia market. Altcoins, by which we mean all non-stablecoin alternatives to Bitcoin, makeup 16% of trading volume for Eastern Asia addresses, more than any other region.”

Why are Stablecoins becoming so popular in East-Asia?

One of the major factors for stable assets such as Tether to become widely popular in China(76% of the trading volume is East-Asia which comes from China) is the fact that Tether represents the closest association to a U.S dollar. By using Tether as a fiat stand-in instead of, say, Bitcoin, traders can lock in gains without off-ramping into fiat by simply converting other currencies into Tether and leaving the Tether in their wallet or exchange account.

On the other hand, Bitcoin configures too much volatility at present, as prices keep moving constantly in the charts. Another prime reason could be the fact that the Chinese government does not really prefer Bitcoin.

In the past, Xi Jinping, President of China has been supportive of digital payments, as a Yuan-backed CBDC is undergoing development but a decentralized based asset such as Bitcoin has never received a lot of appreciation.

Recently, Bitcoin exchanges were also getting shut down in Beijing and Shanghai, so it can be assumed that traders are more comfortable to trade with assets that fall under the kind blanket of the ruling party. Decentralized assets are still frowned upon in China that’s why a centralized form in Tether might be more favorable.

Bitcoin, Tron, DASH Technical Analysis on 18th September 2020

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The cryptocurrency market as a whole was a little bit erratic at the moment. With major altcoins displaying different trends, there was a sense of uncertainty in the charts. Bitcoin, Tron, and Dash followed separate market trends over the last day as the threat of another bearish pullback loomed large in the industry.

Bitcoin hourly chart

bitcoin hourly chart

While all the other assets underwent a drop in the past week, the king coin managed to keep its price position at the top of its recovery. However, the current position of Bitcoin feels very temporary at the moment. All the market indicators are hinting towards a correction at press time. Bitcoin‘s rising price has been coupled with the Relative Strength Index consistently declining.

It is a clear sign of a bearish diversion in the charts which will pan out towards a pullback. At the moment, Bitcoin was getting the support of the 50-day Moving Average but the Awesome Oscillator suggested that diminishing bullish momentum in the charts.

Bitcoin had a market cap of $202 billion at press time with a trading volume of $28 billion in the last 24-hours. With a minor growth of 0.43%, Bitcoin was valued at $10,958.

Tron hourly chart

tron technical analysis

With Tron, the past-day was relatively positive. A growth of 9.54% was exhibited, outperforming top assets in the 24-hour window. The asset also managed to sustain a position above the 50-Day Moving Average, which a positive sign in the short term. At the moment, Tron was ranked 15th in the charts with a market cap of $2.08 billion. Tron registered a high trading volume of $3.20 billion, indicating activeness in the ecosystem.

According to Chaikin Money Flow or CMF, the capital coming in Tron was more than the capital going out, as interest from traders showed promise. Bollinger Bands appeared to resemble a parallel flow, which might suggest that the volatility will remain stagnant over the next few hours.

Dash hourly chart

dash technical analysis

Lastly, Dash‘s price movement suggested extreme sideways movement over the past few days but the bearish undertone was evident. With a minor growth of 0.05% in the charts, Cardano exhibited a market cap of $707 million, coupled with a formidable trading volume of $591 million. At press time, Cardano was ranked 31st in the list of digital assets.

For Dash, the trend was slowly inclining towards a bearish nature, as the MACD line suggested a crossover with the signal line. According to Parabolic SAR, the trend indicated an increase of selling pressure as the dotted lines hovered over the candlesticks. The convergence of Bollinger Bands also suggested the fall in volatility, eliminating the chance of outburst towards the top.

Bitcoin May Hit $30k in Dec 2020 Despite Low Social Sentiment

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It seems like the time is ticking for bitcoin. The largest digital asset is currently at the top of its recovery after the initial collapse in September, but the majority of the altcoins have been struggling to keep pace. Usually, that would be a positive sign for Bitcoin, but the market sentiment indicated that the price seemed to be at the top of a drawdown any minute in the current charts.

Santiment, a cryptocurrency analytics platform indicated that Bitcoin’s Social Sentiment score is at an all-time low at the moment.

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Data exhibited that Bitcoin crossed the threshold at $11,000 for the first time yesterday since it collapsed on 2nd September. However, on the Social Media Platform, Twitter, its userbase was exhibiting the lowest positive sentiment for Bitcoin over the last 2 years. The calculation was done taking into account, the total overall volume for Bitcoin mentions, comparing that with positive and negative commentary.

The marker sentiment of the Option Traders did not seem exactly bullish as well.

skew top btc options oi change prev day

As witnessed a majority of the Option contracts were tied with Put Sells narrative, where the price expectancy by 25th September was in the range of $8000-$9000. While 674 Call Buy contracts were hopeful for a $12,000 re-test on 18th September(tomorrow) the chances were extremely bleak keeping the short term in mind.

However, if the short-term bearish period can be ignored for a brief, a particular model suggests that Bitcoin’s price might go up as high as $30,000 by the time 2020 is concluded.

Stock-to-Flow projections: Bitcoin above $30,000 by December 31st?

A recent glassnode chart had suggested that the Stock-to-Flow Deflection had reached a 5-month low of 0.596. It signified that Bitcoin is strongly undervalued at the moment and that price is eventually going to pick according to the Stock-to-Flow model.

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Now, considering the trend of Stock to Flow has held pretty strong since the start of last year, according to the model, it seemed that the current price drop would a minor detour before the bullish rally picks up during the final quarter of 2020.

According to S2F projections, Bitcoin’s price is supposed to cross $50,000 by May 2021, and trade close or above $70,000 by the 2021 rolls in.

Keeping in the track of the model, it was pictured that Bitcoin will be valued at $31,064 on 31st December 2020. That is a huge prediction considering Bitcoin is over $20,000 behind the projection at present time.

While Bitcoin has definitely lagged behind the actual S2F model in the past, the minimum value of Bitcoin is $18,000 in order to avoid the invalidation of the S2F model.

XRP Price: XRP’s Bullish Rally Will be Reversed if $0.252 is Not Taken Over

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XRP’s price movement during the past week has been sluggish. While most of the top digital currencies were exhibiting a significant amount of volatility in their market, XRP’s price did not make too much noise to ascertain a level of enthusiasm. The industry as a whole was now turning a bit bearish with the only Bitcoin holding a higher ground.

Amidst such turmoil, XRP is entering a defining moment in its price charts which may dictate the assets’ direction for the rest of the year. XRP had a market cap of $11.3 billion at press time, with a minor growth of 2% over the past 24-hours.

XRP’s hourly chart

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XRP’s hourly chart exhibited the performance of XRP over the past week and the strength of resistance at $0.254 was for everyone to witness. With XRP slowing reaching its current price point at $0.251, its current ascending channel pattern indicated that the price will possibly plummet in the future. Other bearish factors included the 50-day Moving Average(yellow line) that was moving above the candlesticks at present. With the immediate resistance placed at $0.252, A re-test at $0.222 is the relative outcome over the next few days.

Relative Strength or RSI suggested a brief patch of recovery but selling pressure continued to control its movement and before moving up, a higher probability had the indicator re-test the over-sold position in the charts. Awesome Oscillator or AO also suggested the depleting bullish momentum as the green candles started to fade in the charts.

XRP daily chart

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The weekly chart of XRP is where things are reaching a critical moment at the moment. Earlier last month, when the asset crossed above its 2-year downtrend, the XRP army exhibited a lot of exhilaration, and they believed that XRP will end up taking over the $1 mark soon. However, after 4-weeks of sustaining a place above the downtrend, the token dipped below the trendline once again.

At the moment, it is important for XRP to reverse the downtrend again if the asset wants to keep its bullish hopes up. Another week below the resistance at $0.254 will be devastating for its long-term trend and XRP could be looking at the bottom of the barrel, come to the end of 2020.