- Bitcoin’s cycle shifts typically occur when surpassing 2.4x the 200-day SMA.
- Significant outflows correlate with price increases, signaling investor confidence.
- RSI at 59.85 and MACD confirm bullish momentum, suggesting further upside.
Bitcoin’s price movements have attracted significant attention, especially with the potential for a new cycle shift. Ali Martinez’s analysis reveals that Bitcoin ($BTC) cycle shifts tend to occur when its price surpasses 2.4 times the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
This level, currently set at $184,600, has historically been a crucial marker for Bitcoin’s bull market peaks. As Bitcoin hovers at a price of $105,212, it remains significantly below this critical threshold.
BTC Price and Inflow/Outflow Activity
Bitcoin’s price has been steadily rising, but the spot inflow and outflow chart provides a deeper understanding of market sentiment. Notably, significant outflows have dominated in recent weeks, with some peaks exceeding $600 million.
These outflows may suggest that investors are withdrawing Bitcoin in response to bullish market sentiment. In contrast, spikes in inflows, particularly around mid-August and November, indicate short-term selling pressure, with inflows surpassing $300 million.
Source: Coinglass
The pattern suggests that larger outflows generally correlate with price increases. This indicates that Bitcoin is being withdrawn from exchanges as confidence in the market builds.
On the other hand, smaller inflows coincide with price corrections, hinting at distribution phases. Key levels to observe include inflow spikes near $300 million, which could signal resistance, and major outflows exceeding $600 million, aligning with strong price support during periods of accumulation.
Key Technical Indicators: Strengthening Bullish Sentiment
BTC/USD daily price chart, Source: Trading view
Several technical indicators point toward a continued bullish outlook for BTC. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently at 59.85, shows bullish momentum without being in overbought territory. This suggests there is still room for further upside.
Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) confirms the strength of upward movement, with the MACD line positioned above the signal line and positive histogram bars.
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