We are mere weeks away from the US Presidential elections and both candidates have offered their stances on major issues. One issue that we’ve seen become more prominent this election cycle has been cryptocurrency. This asset class has become dominant in the last decade and only seems to become bigger with time.
2024 saw Bitcoin, the world’s most famous crypto, earn a new all-time price high as well as a spot ETF in the United States. Then there are the hoards of altcoins, both old and new, that have taken up the spotlight. For example, new meme coins are being treated with much more fanfare and even institutions are taking notice. By selecting the right altcoins at the right time, huge returns can be made.
In all this, it is worth noting that Donald Trump specifically has branded himself as the pro-crypto candidate this election cycle. Earlier this year, he became the first US Presidential candidate to accept cryptocurrency for campaign donations. In the months after that, he secured endorsements from many industry figures like the Winklevoss twins and has been very vocal about the sector.
Given that a lot of market movements within crypto are triggered by hype, it comes as no surprise that several price spikes have been tied to Trump. For example, back in June, the Bitcoin price saw a slight increase that was credited to his scheduled appearance at a Bitcoin convention in Nashville. It would be one of the biggest political endorsements of cryptocurrency so naturally, there was excitement.
Ironically, the Bitcoin convention appearance did eventually happen, just weeks after the failed assassination attempt. The fact that it was one of Trump’s first public appearances following it only made the market more galvanized. During the convection, he promised to fire SEC Chain Gary Gensler and scrap plans for the US dollar, which has led to some mixed reviews. Around the same time, Trump put out Bitcoin-branded merchandise in his store which sold out quickly.
If there was ever any doubt about his willingness to publicly commit to crypto, these put them to rest. In the last few months, we’ve seen several more instances of the crypto market responding to his actions. Earlier this month, the Bitcoin price rose to $63,000 per unit, bolstered by Elon Musk’s appearance at a Trump rally. Musk is another public figure who has passionately endorsed crypto with positive results. Besides his history of pushing Bitcoin, he is partially credited with triggering the rise of Dogecoin with his public support.
For many crypto-loving voters, Trump represents the sort of person who knows how to speak to the market in a way that it understands. And in the lead-up to the elections, there is more discussion about how the markets will fare if he is elected or not. From a policy perspective, we already know that Trump plans to change SEC leadership and scrap the digital dollar. Crypto investors have mostly supported the former as the SEC has had a tumultuous relationship with the industry. The latter has been a bit of a mixed bag. Other countries such as China have launched their own Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) and some believe that the US is lagging too far behind in that regard. As such, Trump not wanting to move forward with it causes concern.
As far as the markets themselves, token performance will swing wildly depending on the outcome. According to Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, Solana will go on to outperform Ethereum by next year if Trump is re-elected. As he explains, Solana has a 250x market cap-to-fees ratio compared to Ether’s 121x.
Besides the direct benefits to the Solana ecosystem, we also have to look at how crypto will benefit as an industry. This could be via more positive legislation and simply the confidence that investors will feel from having a pro-crypto politician in the White House.
If Kamala Harris enters the White House, he predicts that Bitcoin will outperform Ethereum, which will go on to outperform Solana. But regardless of who wins, Kendrick believes that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 by the end of next year.
Even as the elections draw near, experts and everyday investors alike are grappling with the implications of either candidate winning. While Trump has successfully branded himself as the most outwardly pro-crypto candidate, he still has his criticisms. From the digital dollar plans to those who simply question his intentions, there are debates from all sides. For now, we can only wait and watch to see the outcomes of the elections and the eventual impact on crypto.